STATISTICS

STATISTICS is a term derived from the German word Staat, a state or body of men existing together in social union. It was first introduced (at least in its present sense)1 in 1749 by Professor Achenwall of Göttingen, who has the credit of being the founder of the science. He was the first that attempted to estimate the power and character of a state at a given time, by a systematic examination of its social condition, its progress in civilization, and its natural resources; and to determine the nature and force of those various circumstances in the history and condition of a people that go to form their character. Statistics, therefore, concerns itself with man as existing in society, and its province comprises everything that bears upon his condition. "As all things on earth were given to man for his use, and all things in creation were so ordained as to contribute to his advantage and comfort, and as whatever affects man individually affects also man in a state of society, it follows that statistics enter more or less into every branch of science, and form that part of each which immediately connects it with human interests." (Journal of the London Statistical Society, vol. i.) It is difficult to define the limits of a science embracing so wide a field, and comprehending so great a variety of subjects. Its main object, however, is the collection and arrangement of facts, from which a knowledge may be attained of the nature and power of those laws on which the character, condition, and happiness of man depend. Man in this world is subject to certain fixed laws, which form his character and determine his condition, and in proportion as these are understood and acted upon will his happiness be increased and his progress in civilization accelerated. These are, however, so various, and act and react upon each other in so many different ways, that it is difficult or impossible to trace their workings in individual cases, and hence it is only by taking bodies of men in similar circumstances that we can arrive at a satisfactory knowledge of them, and estimate their effects. The laws themselves are as certain, fixed, and complete, as those of astronomy. We cannot indeed predict the history of society like that of the celestial appearances for thousands of years to come; but this arises not from any uncertainty in the laws themselves, but from the data to which these laws are to be applied. The data in astronomy are as certain as the laws themselves: "The circumstances, on the contrary, which influence the condition and progress of society are innumerable and perpetually changing; and though they all change in obedience to causes, and therefore to laws, the multitude of causes is so great as to defy our limited powers of calculation." But while it may be impossible to attain an amount of knowledge necessary for prediction, "there is nothing chimerical in the hope that general laws... really admit of being ascertained," sufficient to enable us, "in any given condition of social affairs,... to understand by what causes it had, in any and every particular, been made what it was; whether it was tending to any and what changes; what effects each feature of its existing state was likely to produce in the future; and by what means any of those effects might be prevented, modified, or accelerated, or a different class of effects superinduced." (See J. Stuart Mill's Logic, b. vi., c. 6, § 2.) We cannot, however, by a priori reasoning discover the laws which regulate the complex fabric of human society; we must proceed by induction from well-ascertained facts, and hence the value of that science that more particularly concerns itself with the collection and arrangement of facts, by which alone these can be ascertained. Statistics, then, is that important branch of social science which collects, arranges, and compares the facts from which the politician may ascertain those principles in accordance with which governments may best promote the wellbeing and happiness of their subjects, and the political economist those laws that regulate the production and distribution of wealth. But while the statistic collects materials for the politician and political economist, he must from them learn in what manner and in what directions to pursue his investigations; how to arrange his facts so as to bring out the truths which they are calculated to convey; what to collect as valuable, and what to reject as worthless. Facts collected in ignorance of the manner in which they are to be applied, or of the principles which they tend to illustrate, are in most cases of little value. Hence it is that we so frequently find facts collected that convey no useful information, or arranged in such a way as that they tend only to mislead. But while the statistic furnishes the politician and political economist with facts on which to found their reasonings, and from which to draw their conclusions, he, on the other hand, avails himself largely of the labours of the historian and geographer. Indeed, statistics is that science that takes up and shows the practical bearings of the facts of history and geography upon the condition of man. Thus, while history narrates the long series of occurrences that are to be found in the annals of a country, statistics only deals with those of them that may have contributed to form the character and fix the political and social condition of the people. The historian, too, usually travels over an extended period, while the statistic brings his facts to bear upon a particular time. Hence, in the words of Professor Schlözer, the pupil and successor of Achenwall, "Statistics is history at a stand; history is statistics in a state of progression." With geography the science of statistics is even more intimately connected, for the physical characteristics of a country are a chief element in determining the condition of the inhabitants. The heat, cold, moisture, &c., of the climate affect their health and energies; while the climate is influenced by the position and physical features of the country, — its mountains, valleys, plains, lakes, marshes, vegetable productions, and state of cultivation. The climate, position, elevation, and nature of the surface and soil determine the animal and vegetable productions, which in their turn impart a distinctive character to the people, and direct their labours. A fertile and plain country draws their attention to the peaceful pursuits of husbandry and pasturage; a mountainous, rugged, and barren country, abounding in wild animals, renders them active, hardy, and fearless, and leads them to seek subsistence in the chase; while in the vicinity of seas and rivers abounding in fish, piscatory pursuits are fostered. Harbours and navigable rivers incline them to commerce, which increases as the want of foreign products is felt, as the country affords them articles of exchange, and as the means of internal communication are favourable; while mineral wealth draws their attention to mining and the working of metals. Hence, while geography describes the position and physical conditions of a country, its mountains, rivers, climate, productions, &c., statistics treats of the political importance of these, and of their bearings upon the condition of the inhabitants at a given time. As the statistic looks for direction to the politician and political economist, not less ought the geographer and historian to learn from him how to prosecute their researches, so as to bring into due prominence those circumstances that tend chiefly to stamp the character of a people; for in reality their labours are of value as they can be brought practically to bear upon the conditions of social life. But indeed every science that bears upon the condition of man enters more or less into statistics; and on the other hand derives valuable aid from it. Law, medicine, che- 1 The noun Statista, signifying a statesman, and the adjective Statisticus, occur about three-quarters of a century earlier in Theaurus Rerumpublicarum, by Ph. Andreas Oldenburger, Geneva, 1675. Statistics. mistry, botany, zoology, geology, meteorology, ethnology, technology, and anthropology, all contribute facts that are of value in statistics. Its character, however, is distinct from all of them; for while, for example, the jurist studies the laws of a country systematically, according to their nature, or the subjects with which they deal; the statistic views them only and judges of them as they affect the social system. We shall, however, perhaps, best illustrate the importance and practical bearings of the science by noticing some of the principal subjects that come within its sphere. As whatever affects the condition of man in society forms a part of statistics, it follows that a statistical account of a country ought to include an exposition of all those circumstances in the physical characteristics of the country, or in the social condition of the people that influence their character, minister to their subsistence, add to their power, or tend to increase their happiness. "Statistik eines Landes und Volkes ist der Inbegriff seiner Staatsmerkwürdigkeiten" (Achenwall.) A statistical account of a country therefore includes—Under Physical Features.—An account of its position, extent, and natural divisions; its boundaries; the extent and character of its coast; the height, form, and direction of its mountains; the extent and elevation of its plains; the character of its valleys; the length, direction, size, and velocity of its rivers; the nature and extent of its lakes and marshes; its springs. Climate.—The variations of temperature; fall of rain; direction of the prevailing winds; atmospheric pressure. Geology.—The geological formations of the country; its various mineral resources; character of the soil. Botany and Zoology.—The number and distribution of the various species of animals and plants, with their uses as ministering to the necessities or comforts of the people, as supplying them with materials for labour, or as furnishing them with articles of trade. Agriculture.—The extent of cultivated land, heaths, forests, pastures, &c.; the progress of agriculture; modes of cultivation; agricultural implements; fertility of the soil; the different kinds of crops; their amount, and the proportion they bear to the wants of the people; the number of the various kinds of cattle, and their uses in agriculture or domestic economy. Mining.—The number, character, and productiveness of the mines; the quantities and values of the different ores raised; the progress of mining, and modes of carrying on operations. Fisheries.—The various kinds of sea and river fisheries; their importance, and the means and manner of prosecuting them. Manufactures.—Their progress and present state; the different branches of manufacture; their principal seats; their importance, as contributing to the wealth of the country, or as affording employment and the means of subsistence to the people; the amount and value of the labour expended upon them; the machinery employed; how far the raw materials are home produced or imported; how far the manufactured articles are necessaries or luxuries, are for home consumption or for exportation. Commerce.—The amount of the exports and imports; the quantities and values of the principal articles; the principal ports; the countries with which trade is chiefly carried on, and the principal articles sent to or brought from each; by whom, or under what flags the trade is principally carried on; how far the imports are necessaries or luxuries; how far for direct consumption, for manufacture, or for exportation; how far the exports on raw or manufactured goods, are the natural production of the country or imported or manufactured. It includes, also, an account of the nature, amount, &c., of the internal or coasting trade. Facilities for Commerce.—The amount of shipping belonging to the country; amount of sailing and steam vessels; the state of the harbours; the length of the navigable rivers and canals; the nature and length of the roads and railways; nature of conveyances. Population.—The number at different periods; races; rate of increase; emigration and immigration; proportion of births and deaths; the proportion of the sexes, and marriage relations; the different ages of the population; the average duration of life, and how affected by locality, climate, occupation, or mode of life; the nature and prevalence of certain diseases; the proportion of the population to the production, wealth, and consumption of the country. Social Condition.—The general character, disposition, and habits of the people; their manners and customs; their progress in civilization; the different classes of society; their numbers and relations to one another; the social condition, and intellectual and moral culture of each; houses; the distribution of wealth and power; the occupations of the people; the proportion of capital to labour; skilled and unskilled labour; wages; prices of provisions; amount of chief articles of consumption; national vices; pauperism. Language and Literature.—Character and growth of the language; different dialects; affinity with other languages; literature, its character, state, and progress; the branches in which most distinguished; names of principal authors; different classes of publications; literary associations; public libraries; restrictions on literature. Science and Art.—State and progress of; branches in which principally distinguished; institutions for the promotion of, as scientific associations, academies, museums, picture galleries, &c. Government.—Its nature, form, and progress; the legislative, judicial, and executive functions, in whom vested, and how carried out; the character of its laws; the political divisions of the country; how far and in what way the different classes are represented; public works, and other means adopted by government for the encouragement of industry and commerce, or for promoting the social and intellectual progress of the people. Religion.—Its character, condition, and progress; its connection with the state; the various sects; toleration; number of churches and extent of accommodation; the various classes of the clergy; their emoluments; the amount and sources of the church revenues, as provided by the state, by voluntary contributions, &c. Education.—The number and character of the various seminaries of education; their efficiency; how supported; fees; the number of teachers; their incomes; number and ages of scholars, and their proportion to population, within the same ages; how far the state controls or interferes with education. Crime.—State of crime; different classes of offences; the social condition of offenders, age, sex, education, &c.; number of convictions; proportion of convictions to committals; the different kinds of punishment; means for the punishment or prevention of crime, prisons, reformatories, police, &c. Defence.—The natural defences of the country; its fortresses; the amount and efficiency of the army and navy. Finance.—Amount of national debt, its character and growth; the various sources of revenue; the gross and net amount received from each; the proportion of income to expenditure; the various branches of expenditure. Taxation.—Amount of; its character as direct or indirect; its branches; articles on which imposed; how levied; expenses of collection; how far protective or retaliatory; effects on industry or commerce; recent alterations and effects of. Money, &c.—The weights, measures, and moneys of the country, and their equivalents; banks and banking system, &c. Antiquities.—The different classes of antiquities; their character and age; their state of preservation, &c. Authorities.—The various sources of information, at least so far as not previously referred to, in order to afford the means of judging what degree of reliance can be placed upon the various statements. Information on these various points, so far as applicable to any particular state is necessary, in order to a comprehensive knowledge of it—in order to understand its present position, to trace the various circumstances by which it has been brought about, and to acquire some knowledge of the action and reaction that is constantly taking place among its various elements. How few the means are that we yet possess of drawing up a complete statistical account of any country it is scarcely necessary to say. Those who have occasion to search for such information know how meagre are the materials and how unreliable the sources. On many points, the governments of the various countries can alone be looked to for information; and they possess numerous facilities for carrying out such investigations. In our own country, a statistical department has been connected with the Board of Trade since 1832, and has collected and published many valuable facts relating to our own and other countries. We are still, however, in this respect far behind several of the continental states. Lord Stanley, in his opening address before section F (Economic Science and Statistics) of the British Association in 1856, forcibly points out the importance to the government of statistical facts, and thus alludes to the necessity of establishing a special department of government, charged with the annual publication of statistical facts relative to our national affairs. "Statistics," said he, "are the function of the state, in a sense in which no other science is so.... We have statistics enough presented to Parliament every session, but they are, in the great majority of cases, called for by individuals. They are drawn out to suit the particular purpose of those who move for them; they are accordingly deficient in unity, and often of no use beyond the moment. Now I speak from some personal observation, when I say, that at a cost hardly greater than that of those desultory, fragmentary, isolated returns (which have in addition the inconvenience, coming as they do at unexpected times, and without any regularity, of throwing a sudden increase of work on particular offices), it would be possible to present to the nation such a yearly resumé of administrative statistics, as should, to a very great degree, supersede the present system (if system it can be called) of moving for returns as and when they are wanted. I have said, that I think a statistical department desirable instead of a statistical branch in every department; because the former method gives better security for unity of plan, and because the work will be best done by those whose sole and undivided business it is." In 1833 the statistical section of the British Association for the advancement of science was formed; and in 1834, the London Statistical Society was founded, both of which have done much in the way of collecting and collating important statistical information, and of diffusing a knowledge of the principles and value of the science. There are indeed some who seek to confine this science exclusively to an exposition of the state of a country or people, at a particular time, and to such circumstances in their condition as may be reduced to numerical calculation and exhibited in tables. But this is to deprive the science of all that is most interesting and instructive, and to render it of little practical value. Numbers are undoubtedly a most important part of statistics. They are that which gives precision and accuracy to the science, and without which it would be little else than a mass of generalities and uncertainties. Figures, however, of themselves unaccompanied by any explanation of the nature of the subject upon which they bear, and especially without any account of the causes that may have influenced them, or the circumstances by which they were attended, can lead only to false conclusions, or to no conclusion at all. Figures are the mere dry bones of statistics, which require to be systematically arranged and explained, and the principles which they illustrate pointed out before they can be of real value. In the same way, to know merely the population, productions, or trade of a country or place at a given time, is of comparatively little value, unless we possess also the same facts for different periods, in order to compare them, and to know how far, and in what particulars, progress or decline has taken place. It is from comparing similar facts of the same country for different times, or of different countries at the same time, and noting the difference of circumstances in each, that the statistic arrives at a knowledge of those principles that are constantly at work in society; and hence to confine his operations to mere figures, or to a particular time, would be to deprive them of their chief value. Indeed, nothing has tended more to bring the science into general disrepute than the attempt thus to limit the sphere of its operations. It is by being thus restricted that statistics has been so frequently made the means of promulgating or upholding gross errors. When every one is left to explain or arrange figures in his own way, there is scarcely a theory however wild, or an error however palpable, to which an ignorant or designing person may not by means of them give an air of truth; and thus occasion has been given for the saying, that "anything may be proved by figures." The confidence, too, with which they are handled, and the appearance of accuracy which they bear, lead to their being received without a due amount of examination. Hence statistics is a favourite mode of argument with certain classes of speakers and writers, as it is generally found to carry conviction in proportion as their hearers or readers are ignorant of the principles of the science, or are unable to test their assertions by the rules of sound criticism. Indeed, there is nothing about which one ought to be more sceptical than the great mass of what are called statistical facts, however accurate and imposing they may appear. Statistics, like every other science, has its principles which require to be known, and in accordance with which its facts are to be expounded. It concerns itself chiefly with the accumulation and comparison of facts, and does not admit of any kind of speculation. The statistic must, therefore, not only be a man in whose judgment and honesty we can confide, but he must also come to the consideration of his subject with a mind void of preconceived theories, otherwise he may be led, even unconsciously, into a partial or deceptive exposition of the facts. The statistic has, first of all, to ascertain what reliance can be placed upon the facts or figures which are to form the basis of inquiry—from what sources they have been obtained, and how or for what purpose they have been collected. Figures collected for a specific purpose may often be of little or no value for one of a different nature, as details may have been omitted, and distinctions neglected to be made, which would materially affect the result. Even when these are collected with the utmost possible care, and under the most favourable circumstances, they may be of such a nature as that the parties applied to for information may have a direct interest in concealing the truth; and even where such temptations do not exist, ignorance of the exact nature of the information required, or objections to inquiries of a personal or inquisitorial nature, may lead many to make false or misleading statements. It would be easy to illustrate this by referring to official or parliamentary documents of our own country; and when we find such errors among ourselves, with all our appliances for collecting information, and all our efforts to ensure accuracy, what can we expect of countries and times less civilized? There is no more frequent cause of error than that of taking as complete what is only a partial statement of facts. Where a traveller or historian is the source of information, the statistic has to ascertain his character for accuracy or impartiality, the means he had of obtaining information, and the point of view from which he looks at the subject. Having ascertained what degree of reliance can be placed upon the facts themselves, or made allowance for deficiencies, the next duty of the statistic is to arrange them so as to find out what inferences may be legitimately drawn from them. By a careful analysis and comparison of the facts he attempts to ascertain the nature and force of the various laws that have been acting upon them. It is to be borne in mind, that in society no effect can have only one cause, neither can one cause have only one effect. Every one of the social phenomena is the result not of one only, but of a multitude of causes. "Whatever affects in an appreciable degree any one element of the social state, affects through it all the other elements.... There is no social phenomenon which is not more or less influenced by every other part of the condition of the same society, and therefore by every cause which is influencing any other of the contemporaneous social phenomena" (Mill's Logic). Every effect, therefore, in the social system is produced by a complexity of circumstances, and "amounts precisely to the sum of the effects of the circumstances taken singly" (Ibid). Hence it is, that as we cannot know all the circumstances that may have been at work in producing a certain result, statistics cannot be considered as an exact science, but rather as a science of probabilities. But while we cannot know all the causes, there are yet in every case certain of them that have been more immediately concerned in bringing about the result, and it is to these that the statistic