In the article Astronomy (vol iv. 14), the phenomenon of the annual precession of the equinoxes has been described, and its physical cause stated to be the attraction of the sun and moon upon the protuberant mass of matter accumulated about the earth's equator, combined with the diurnal rotation. We shall here discuss the subject more particularly, and show in what manner the different forces which tend to displace the plane of the earth's equator give rise to the phenomenon in question, and how their effects are computed from the fundamental principles of dynamics. The general problem, which is that of determining the perturbations of the earth's axis of rotation, embraces the Nutation of the axis, as well as the precessional motion of the equinoctial points, and is one of the most important and interesting in physical astronomy.

If the earth were a perfect sphere, the attraction of the sun or moon would have no tendency to communicate to it any motion about its centre of gravity. In this case, all the particles being symmetrically disposed with reference to every plane passing through its centre, the forces acting on opposite sides of any plane passing through its centre and the centre of the attracting body, would exactly balance each other, and consequently would have no tendency to produce a rotatory motion. But by reason of the spheroidal form of the earth, and the intensity of the force of attraction varying with the distance, the action of a distant body which is not situated either in the plane of the equator, or in the prolongation of the axis of rotation, produces an unequal effect on the opposite sides of every plane passing through the earth's centre (excepting the meridian in which the body is situated), and tends to generate a rotatory motion about that diameter of the equator which is perpendicular to the line which joins the centre of the earth with the centre of the attracting body. Hence the sun exerts a force, which at every instant has a tendency to bring the plane of the earth's equator towards the plane of the ecliptic; and if the earth had no motion of rotation about its axis, the two planes would at length be brought to coincide. In consequence, however, of the rotatory motion, the inclination of the two planes, as we shall show, undergoes no permanent alteration; but a motion is given to the earth's axis, such that the pole of the equator constantly revolves about the pole of the ecliptic in the direction opposite to that of the diurnal rotation, and the intersection of the equator and ecliptic, following the motion of the pole, is carried backwards along the ecliptic. The moon produces a similar effect in reference to the plane of the lunar orbit; and the motion produced by the combined action of the sun and moon, which is the phenomenon observed, is the lunisolar precession of the equinoxes.

As the efficacy of the disturbing force to turn the earth about an axis varies with the distance of the attracting body from the plane of the equator, the precessional motion of the equinoxes is not uniform. The efficacy of the sun's force continues to increase, whilst the sun passes from either equinox to the solstice, and to diminish while it passes from the solstice to the equinox. The period of the inequality is consequently half a year. The period in which the action of the moon passes through all its degrees of intensity is about nine years, being that in which the nodes of the lunar orbit accomplish half a revolution on the ecliptic. The apparent effect of this irregular action, is an alternate increase and diminution of the declinations of the fixed stars, most sensible for those nearest the pole, which is characteristically called the nutation of the earth's axis. The solar nutation, however, is so small as to be insensible to observation; the lunar nutation is sufficiently sensible, amounting to about 18' between the extreme positions of the pole.

Before proceeding with the investigation of the problem, it will be convenient to premise the two following elementary theorems respecting the composition of rotatory motion, referring the reader for their demonstration to the article Rotation.

Theorem 1. If a rigid body revolving about an axis $Aa$, which passes through its centre of gravity $O$, with an angular velocity $\omega$, receive an impulse which alone would cause it to revolve about an axis $Bb$, also passing through its centre of gravity, with a velocity $\phi$, the body will now revolve about a third axis $Cc$, passing through its centre of gravity, and lying in the plane of the two axes $Aa$ and $Bb$, and so situated that the sine of its inclination to the axis $Aa$ will be to the sine of its inclination to the axis $Bb$, as the velocity about $Bb$ to the velocity about $Aa$; that is, the new axis will divide the angle $AOB$, so that $\sin AOC : \sin BOC :: \phi : \omega$.

In order to determine whether the pole $C$ of the new axis lies between $A$ and $B$, or between $A$ and $b$, it is only necessary to consider that the new axis must evidently be that line in the body in which every point is at rest in respect of both motions. If, therefore, we suppose the original motion about $Aa$, to be in the direction which would raise the point $B$ above the plane of the paper, and to depress $b$ below it, and the new impulse to be given in the direction which would depress the point $A$ below the plane of the paper, and raise $a$ above it, then $C$ will lie between $A$ and $B$; but if the new impulse tends to raise $A$ above the plane of the paper, then $C$ will lie between $A$ and $b$.

Corollary 1. If the two axes $Aa$ and $Bb$ are at right angles, then $\sin BOC = \cos AOC$, and we have $\frac{\sin AOC}{\cos AOC} = \frac{\phi}{\omega}$, that is, $\tan AOC = \frac{\phi}{\omega}$.

Cor. 2. If the impulse is renewed at every instant of time, the axis about which the body actually revolves must have a uniform motion in space from $OA$ towards $OB$.

Theorem 2. If the force which tends to give the body a motion of rotation about an axis which is always perpendicular to the axis about which it is already revolving, and situated in the plane $AOB$, be uniform, the angular velocity of rotation remains unaltered, or $\omega$ is a constant quantity.

These theorems, which are true of bodies in general, whatever be their figure, were first demonstrated by Frisi.

Proposition 1. To determine the efficacy of the sun's attraction to turn the spheroid about its centre, the earth being supposed homogeneous.

Let $Pp$ be the axis of rotation, $Qq$ the projection of the equator, $S$ the sun, $C$ the centre of the spheroid, and $D$... Precession

Let \( f' \) represent the force of the sun's attraction on a particle at the centre C, and \( f'' \) the force of its attraction on a particle at D, then the attraction being inversely as the square of the distance, we have \( f'' = \frac{SC^2}{SD^2} \cdot f' \). Now the force \( f' \), which acts on D in the direction SD, may be resolved into two; one in the direction CD, which has no tendency to turn the spheroid about its centre, and the other in the direction FD parallel to SC, which tends to turn the spheroid in the direction PQ about an axis passing through C, and perpendicular to the plane PQRS. The resolved part of the force \( f' \), in the direction FD is \( f' \cdot \frac{SC}{SD} \cdot \frac{SC}{SD} \), since SD is the diagonal of a parallelogram of which SC and CD are the sides. Now, if the resolved force in the direction FD parallel to SC were the same on every particle, and equal to \( f' \), it would have no tendency to produce rotation in the spheroid; we may therefore conceive the force on any particle which tends to produce rotation to be the difference between the part of the force acting on that particle in the direction parallel to SC, and the force \( f' \) acting on the particle at C. Hence the force on D tending to impress a rotatory motion on the spheroid is \( f' \cdot \left( \frac{SC}{SD} - \frac{SC}{SD} \right) = f' \cdot \frac{(SC-SD)}{SD} = f' \cdot \frac{(SC+SD)}{SD} \).

Now, by reason of the great distance of the sun in comparison of the radius of the earth, SD is very nearly parallel to SC, and equal to SC—CE. Substituting therefore SC—CE for SD, and neglecting terms divided by SC² which are so small as to be altogether insensible, the factor \( \frac{SC^2 + SC \cdot SD + SD^2}{SD^2} \) becomes \( \frac{3}{SD^2} \), and consequently the above expression is reduced to \( 3f' \cdot \frac{CE}{SD} \) or to \( 3f' \cdot \frac{CE}{SC} \), since the difference between \( 1 + \frac{SD}{SC} \) and \( 1 - \frac{SD}{SC} \) is a quantity divided by SC², and therefore insensible. This is the part of the force on D which tends to turn the spheroid about the diameter of the equator which is perpendicular to Qq; and by the principles of mechanics, its efficacy in communicating a rotatory motion to the spheroid is proportional to the distance of its line of direction from the axis, that is, proportional to CF; whence the moment of the force at the point D becomes \( 3f' \cdot \frac{CE \cdot CF}{SC} \).

Assume \( r = SC \), and let S denote the absolute force of the sun, then \( f' = S + r^2 \); and if \( h = \text{the density at } D \), then \( hdm \) is the quantity of matter in the particle dm at D, and the moment of the force on that particle tending to produce in the spheroid a motion about its centre in the direction QP (which is the general direction of the motion produced by the forces on all the particles) is \( \frac{3S}{r^2} \cdot CE \cdot CF \cdot hdm \), the integral of which must be taken for the whole spheroid.

Draw DM parallel to PP, and MN perpendicular to DF, meeting SC in O, and make CM = X, DM = y, SCP = t,

\( t \) being the complement of the sun's declination) then \( CE = DN + NF = y \cos t + x \sin t \), and \( CF = MN - MO = y \sin t - x \cos t \), whence the moment of the force impressed on D becomes

\[ \frac{3}{r^2} \cdot hdm \left( (x^2 - y^2) \sin t \cos t + xy (\cos^2 t - \sin^2 t) \right). \]

In order to find the integrals \( \int kx^2 \cdot dm \), \( \int ky^2 \cdot dm \), \( \int kxy \cdot dm \)

for every particle in the spheroid, let \( z \) be the co-ordinate perpendicular to the plane of the figure, and conceive the whole spheroid to be divided into an infinite number of thin slices parallel to the plane of \( yz \), the thickness of each slice being \( dz \); suppose, again, each slice to be divided into an infinity of parallelepipeds, parallel to the axis \( z \), and terminated by the surface of the spheroid, the breadth of each being \( dy \); and, lastly, let each parallelepiped be divided into an infinite number of lengths, each \( dx \). The element of the volume, \( dm \), then becomes \( dx \cdot dy \cdot dz \); and consequently the sum of \( hx^2 \cdot dm \) in respect of every particle is expressed by the triple integral \( \int \int \int hx^2 \cdot dx \cdot dy \cdot dz \).

Assuming \( x^2 \cdot dx \) and \( dy \) to be constant, and integrating with respect to \( z \), we obtain \( hx^2 \cdot dx \cdot dy + \text{const.} \). Let \( a = \text{the semi-diameter of the equator}, b = \text{the polar semi-axis}, \) and the equation of the spheroid is \( \frac{x^2}{a^2} + \frac{y^2}{b^2} + \frac{z^2}{c^2} = 1 \), from which the limits of \( z \) must be found. This equation gives for a point at the surface, \( z = \pm a \sqrt{1 - \frac{x^2}{a^2} - \frac{y^2}{b^2}} \), and between those values of \( z \) the definite integral becomes

\[ 2 \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} hx^2 \cdot dx \cdot dy \cdot dz \cdot \sqrt{1 - \frac{x^2}{a^2} - \frac{y^2}{b^2}}. \]

This expresses the sum of \( hx^2 \cdot dm \) for the parallelepiped corresponding to a given value of \( x \).

If we next suppose \( x^2 \) and \( dx \) to be constant, and integrate this expression with respect to \( y \), we shall have the sum of \( hx^2 \cdot dm \) for the slice, the distance of which from the plane \( yz \) is \( x \). Make \( 1 - \frac{x^2}{a^2} = \frac{u^2}{b^2} \), or \( u^2 = b^2 - \frac{b^2 x^2}{a^2} \), and the expression becomes \( \frac{2kx^2}{b} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \sqrt{u^2 - y^2} \cdot dy \cdot dx \).

In integrating this expression, the limits of \( y \), in respect of any given value of \( x \), are obtained from the equation of the section of the ellipsoid in the plane \( xy \), namely \( \frac{x^2}{a^2} + \frac{y^2}{b^2} = 1 \). This equation gives \( y^2 = b^2 - \frac{b^2 x^2}{a^2} \); whence, at the limits \( y^2 = u^2 \), and therefore \( y = \pm u \). Now, by a known formula, the integral \( \int \sqrt{u^2 - y^2} \cdot dy \) from \( y = -u \) to \( y = +u \) is \( \frac{1}{2} \pi u^2 \) (being the ratio of the circumference to the diameter); therefore the integral of \( x^2 \cdot dm \) for the slice corresponding to a given value of \( x \) is \( \frac{2kau^2}{b} \cdot dx \); which, on substituting for \( u^2 \), its value \( b^2 - \frac{b^2 x^2}{a^2} \), becomes

\[ \frac{2k}{a} \left( a^2 x^2 - x^4 \right) dx. \]

We have, lastly, to integrate this expression from \( x = -a \) to \( x = +a \). The integral between those limits is \( \frac{2whl}{a} \left( \frac{a^5}{3} - \frac{a^3}{5} \right) \); whence we have ultimately, in respect of the whole spheroid,

\[ \int \int \int hx^2 \cdot dx \cdot dy \cdot dz = \frac{4}{3} \pi ka^2 b^2. \]

On going through the same process for \( y^2 \cdot dm \), or \( y^2 \cdot dx \cdot dy \cdot dz \), and observing that the integral \( \int y^2 \cdot \sqrt{u^2 - y^2} \cdot dy \) from \( y = -u \) to \( y = +u \) is \( \frac{1}{2} \pi u^2 \), there results for the whole spheroid

\[ \int \int \int ky^2 \cdot dx \cdot dy \cdot dz = \frac{4}{3} \pi ka^2 b^2. \]

With respect to the remaining integral \( \int kxy \cdot dm \), it is easy to see that its value in respect of the whole spheroid must be 0, for on integrating \( \int_{-t}^{+t} \) with respect to \( x \), there results \( \frac{1}{2} k^2 b^2 dxdz \), which vanishes on giving \( z \) all values between \(-t\) and \(+t\), being any definite quantity.

From these values of \( f(x)dm \), \( f(y)dm \), \( f(z)dm \), we obtain the following expression for the moment of all the forces impressed on the spheroid,

\[ \frac{3S}{r^3} \cdot \frac{4\pi}{15} k^2 b(a^2 - b^2) \sin \theta \cos \theta. \]

**Prop. 2.** To determine the efficacy of the sun's attraction to turn the spheroid about its centre, the earth being supposed heterogeneous.

Conceive the spheroid to be composed of infinitely thin concentric layers, bounded by spheroidal surfaces, and suppose the ellipticity and density to be different for each layer, but both to be functions of the distance from the centre of the spheroid. Let \( a \) and \( b \) be respectively the equatorial and polar semi-diameters of the layer which contains a particle \( dm \), \( e \) its ellipticity, and \( k \) its density. In order to find the moment of all the forces impressed on the spheroid, we must first find an expression in terms of \( \beta \) for their moment on the elementary layer containing \( dm \), and then integrate this expression from \( \beta = 0 \) to \( \beta = b \). Now, suppose all the matter of the spheroid exterior to the layer in question to be removed, and suppose also for a moment the matter in the interior of the spheroidal surface passing through \( dm \) to be all of the same density, \( k \), then the moment of the impressed forces on the spheroid whose surface passes through \( dm \), is by the last proposition

\[ \frac{3S}{r^3} \cdot \frac{4\pi}{15} k^2 b(a^2 - b^2) \sin \theta \cos \theta. \]

The variable part of this expression is \( k^2 b(a^2 - b^2) \). Now, since \( a = b(1 + e) \), we have, on neglecting terms multiplied by \( e^2 \), which, by reason of the smallness of the earth's ellipticity are altogether insensible, \( a^2 = b^2 + 2b^2e \) and \( a^2 - b^2 = 2b^2e \), whence \( k^2 b(a^2 - b^2) = 2k^2 b^2e \). Suppose now the semi-axis \( b \) to receive an infinitely small increment, and to become \( b + db \); then since \( k \) and \( e \) are both functions of \( \beta \), the expression \( 2k^2 b^2e \) will become \( 2k^2 b^2e + \frac{d(2k^2 b^2e)}{d\beta} \). This is the variable part of the moment of the forces on the spheroid whose semi-axis is \( b + db \); consequently, in respect of the spheroidal layer which remains on subtracting the spheroid whose semi-axis is \( b \), it becomes \( \frac{d(2k^2 b^2e)}{d\beta} \). Let the integral of this expression between the limits \( \beta = 0 \) and \( \beta = b \) be denoted by \( F(\beta) \); then the moment of all the forces impressed on the spheroid supposed heterogeneous is

\[ \frac{3S}{r^3} \cdot \frac{8\pi}{15} F(\beta) \sin \theta \cos \theta. \]

**Prop. 3.** To determine the angular velocity \( \phi \) generated by the sun's force, and the position of the equator after the infinitely small time \( dt \).

By dynamics, the angular velocity of rotation is equal to the moment of the impressed forces divided by the moment of inertia of the mass to be moved. Now, the moment of inertia of a body, with respect to a given axis of rotation, is the sum of the products obtained by multiplying each particle of the body into the square of its distance from the axis; that is, in respect of the axis \( z \), about which the impressed forces tend to turn the spheroid, the moment of inertia is \( \int (x^2 + y^2) dm \), supposing the spheroid homogeneous, and the density \( k = 1 \). But it has been shewn that in this case \( \int x^2 dm = \frac{4}{3}\pi a^2 b \), and \( \int y^2 dm = \frac{4}{3}\pi a^2 b \); therefore the moment of inertia of the spheroid is \( \frac{8}{3}\pi a^2 b(a^2 + b^2) \).

And by prop. 1, the moment of the impressed forces is

\[ \frac{3S}{r^3} \cdot \frac{4\pi}{15} k^2 b(a^2 - b^2) \sin \theta \cos \theta, \]

therefore

\[ \phi = \frac{3S}{r^3} \cdot \frac{a^2 - b^2}{a^2 + b^2} \sin \theta \cos \theta. \]

In the case of the heterogeneous spheroid the moment of inertia is thus found. As before, let \( a \) and \( b \) be the equatorial and polar semi-axes of the spheroidal surface passing through the particle \( dm \), then if the matter within this surface be supposed of uniform density \( k \), the moment of inertia of this spheroid, by what is already shewn, is

\[ \frac{4}{3}\pi ka^2 b(a^2 + b^2). \]

But \( a^2 + b^2 = 2a^2 + 2b^2e \), and \( a^2 - b^2 = 2b^2e \); therefore \( a^2(b^2 + b^2) = 2b^2 + 6b^2e \); and since \( e \) is a very small quantity, the second term of this expression is very small, and may be neglected in comparison of the first; therefore \( ka^2 b(a^2 + b^2) = 2ka^2 b \). For the spheroid whose semi-axis is \( b + db \), this quantity becomes \( 2ka^2 b + \frac{d(2ka^2 b)}{d\beta} \), and therefore in respect of the elementary spheroidal layer the semi-axes of whose interior and exterior surfaces are \( b \) and \( b + db \), it is \( \frac{d(2ka^2 b)}{d\beta} \). Let \( 2F(\beta) \) denote the integral of this quantity from \( \beta = 0 \) to \( \beta = b \), that is, let \( \int \frac{d(2ka^2 b)}{d\beta} \)

\[ = 2F(\beta), \]

and the moment of inertia of the heterogeneous spheroid becomes

\[ \frac{8\pi}{15} F(\beta). \]

But the moment of the impressed forces is by prop. 2,

\[ \frac{3S}{r^3} \cdot \frac{8\pi}{15} F(\beta) \sin \theta \cos \theta, \]

therefore in the case of the heterogeneous spheroid,

\[ \phi = \frac{3S}{r^3} \cdot \frac{F(\beta)}{F(\beta)} \sin \theta \cos \theta. \]

Let us assume \( K = \frac{a^2 - b^2}{a^2 + b^2} \) in the case of the homogeneous spheroid, and \( K = \frac{F(\beta)}{F(\beta)} \) in the case of the heterogeneous spheroid, and we have for both cases

\[ \phi = \frac{3SK}{r^3} \sin \theta \cos \theta. \]

Now to find the place of the pole, and the position of the equator after the small interval of time \( dt \), we must apply the first of the two theorems above premised. If the earth had no diurnal rotation, the sun's force would cause it to revolve about an axis passing through \( C \) perpendicular to the meridian \( PQPP' \), or perpendicular to the plane of the paper, so as to bring the point \( Q \) nearer to the line \( SC \), with a velocity \( = \phi \). But the earth is already revolving about the axis \( PP' \) with a velocity \( = v \), and in the direction which raises the point \( q \) above the plane of the paper. Hence, by theorem 1, the new axis of rotation will be in the plane passing through \( Pp \), perpendicular to the plane of the paper, and after the time \( dt \) will make with \( Pp \) an angle whose tangent

\[ = \frac{\phi}{v}, \]

the pole \( P \) rising above the plane of the paper; and the new equator will intersect the former in the line \( Qq \), and make with it an angle whose tangent is also \( \frac{\phi}{v} \). The effect of the compound motion is thus to twist as it were the equator about the line \( Qq \) as an axis, or about that diameter of the equator which lies in the same meridian with the sun, instead of twisting it about the diameter perpendicular to that meridian, as would be the case if the earth had no diurnal motion.

**Prop. 4.** To find the amount of the solar precession after any given time.

Let \( AB \) be the intersection of the plane of the ecliptic, with the surface of sphere whose centre is at the centre of Precession

Let ACB be the equator, and S the projection of the sun's place in the ecliptic. Now, the plane of the equator being always perpendicular to the axis of rotation, when the axis changes its position, the equator will also change its position, and the new equator will intersect the former in an angle equal to the deviation of the axis. Let A'CB' be the new position of the equator, after the infinitely small time \( dt \), intersecting the former in C; then the angle ACA' is the measure of the momentary deviation of the axis, and AA', which is the amount of variation in the place of the node, is the precession in the time \( dt \).

From the known properties of spherical triangles we have \[ \sin SAC : \sin AC = \sin A'C : \sin AA'. \] But because ACA' is a very small angle, and AA' a very small arc, the arcs may be taken instead of the sines; whence, since \[ A'C = AC, \] the proportion gives \[ AA' = ACA' \frac{\sin AC}{\sin SAC}. \] But by the last proposition \[ \tan ACA' = \frac{\phi}{v} = \frac{3S.K}{v^2} \sin \theta \cos \lambda, \] therefore, as the small arc may be substituted for its tangent, \[ AA' = \frac{3S.K}{v^2} \frac{\sin AC}{\sin SAC} \sin \theta \cos \lambda. \]

It will now be convenient to express this value of AA' in terms of the sun's longitude and the obliquity of the ecliptic. Since the equator, as was shown in the last proposition, is twisted about the diameter which is in the same meridian with the sun, it follows that the line joining S and C is a part of the meridian; whence ACS is a right angle, and SC (the sun's declination) \( = 90^\circ - \lambda \). Let \( l = AS \) (the sun's longitude), and \( I = SAC \) (the obliquity of the ecliptic); then, in the right angled spherical triangle SAC, we have \[ \cos SC = \cos AC = \cos AS, \quad \text{or} \quad \cos \theta = \cos I; \] and \[ \sin SC = \sin SAC \cos AS, \quad \text{or} \quad \sin \theta = \sin I \sin l, \] therefore \[ \sin \theta \cos \lambda = \frac{\sin I \sin l \cos l}{\cos AC}. \]

Again, in the same triangle we have \[ \tan AC = \tan SAC \tan AS, \quad \text{whence} \quad \sin AC = \cos AC \cos I \tan l, \] and (dividing by \( \sin SAC = \sin I \)) \[ \sin AC = \frac{\sin AC \cos I \sin l}{\sin I \cos l}. \]

Substituting these values of \( \sin \theta \cos \lambda \) and \( \sin AC / \cos AC \) in the above value of AA', we get \[ AA' = \frac{3S.K}{v^2} \cos I \sin l. \]

This is the solar precession in the element of time \( dt \); consequently for a given time \( T \) we have \[ \text{solar precession} = \frac{3S.K \cos I}{v} \int \frac{\sin^2 l}{r^3} dt, \] the integral being taken from \( t = 0 \) to \( t = T \).

To prepare this expression for integration, \( r^3 \) and \( dt \) must be expressed in terms of \( l \) and known quantities. Let \( a \) = semiaxis major of the earth's orbit, \( e \) = eccentricity, \( T \) = sidereal year, then \( r \) being the radius vector, and \( dl \) the angle described in the time \( dt \), \( \frac{1}{2} r^2 dl \) is the space passed over by the radius vector in the element of the time, and by Kepler's law of the equable description of areas, we have \[ dt : T :: \frac{1}{2} r^2 dl : \text{area of orbit}. \]

Now the area of the orbit is \( \pi a^2 \sqrt{1-e^2} \), therefore this portion gives \[ dt = \frac{T r^2 dl}{2 \pi a^2 \sqrt{1-e^2}}. \]

But it is shown in the article Astronomy, part iii., art. 10, that \[ T = 2 \pi \sqrt{\frac{a^3}{F}}, \] where \( F \) is the attracting force at the mean distance \( a \). But we have assumed \( S \) to denote the sun's force at the unit of distance; therefore, the forces being inversely as the squares of the distances, \( F = S + a^2 \), whence \[ T = \frac{2 \pi a^3}{\sqrt{S}}. \]

From this formula we get \[ S = \frac{4 \pi^2 a^3}{T^2}, \] and therefore \[ \frac{S dt}{r^3} = \frac{2 \pi adl}{Tr \sqrt{1-e^2}}. \]

Again, assuming \( \lambda \) = longitude of sun's perigee, the polar equation of the ellipse gives \[ r = \frac{a(1-e^2)}{1+e \cos (\lambda-\lambda_0)}; \] whence \[ \frac{S dt}{r^3} = \frac{2 \pi [1+e \cos (\lambda-\lambda_0)] dl}{T(1-e^2)^{3/2}}, \] and the above expression becomes \[ \text{solar precession} = \frac{6 \pi K \cos I}{Tr(1-e^2)^{3/2}} \int \sin^2 l \left[ 1 + e \cos (\lambda-\lambda_0) \right] dl. \]

The expression under the sign of integration consists of two parts, of which the first \( \int \sin^2 l dl = \frac{1}{2} (C + L - \cos l \sin l) \). (See Fluxions, art. 153.) The second part, namely \( \int e \sin l \cos (\lambda-\lambda_0) dl \), when integrated becomes \( e \sin (\lambda-\lambda_0) - \frac{e}{2} \sin (l+\lambda_0) + \frac{e}{6} \sin (3l-\lambda_0) \), but by reason of the smallness of these terms are insensible, and are therefore neglected.

Rejecting also the terms in the divisor of the coefficient which are multiplied by \( e^2 \), and observing that \( \cos l \sin l = \frac{1}{2} \sin 2l \), we obtain finally, \[ \text{solar precession} = \frac{3S.K \cos I}{T v} (C + L - \frac{1}{2} \sin 2l). \]

The first term of this expression, which depends upon \( C + L \), or on the sun's longitude, is the constant or uniform precession. Its amount in one year is found by supposing \( l \) to be increased by \( 2\pi \), and is consequently \[ \frac{6 \pi K \cos I}{T v}. \]

The second is periodic, and being proportional to twice the sine of the sun's longitude, it runs through its changes in half a year. It is usually regarded as a part of solar nutation, and called the solar equation of the equinoxes in longitude.

Prop. 5. To find the diminution of the obliquity of the ecliptic produced by the sun's attraction.

Referring to the last diagram, make AE = EB = 90°, and let ED be perpendicular to AB the ecliptic, and meet A'CB' in E'. Then EE' is the small change in the inclination in the time \( dt \). In the triangle ECE', we have \[ \sin EE' = \sin CE \sin ECE'. \] But EE' being very small, the arc may be taken for the sine, and therefore \[ EE' = \sin CE \sin ECE'. \]

Now \( \sin CE = \cos AC = \frac{\cos l}{\sin \theta} \); and it has been already seen that \[ \sin ECE' = \sin ACA' = \frac{\phi}{v} = \frac{3S.K}{v^2} \sin \theta \cos \lambda; \] therefore \[ EE' = \frac{3S.K}{v^2} \cos \theta \cos l, \quad \text{or} \quad \cos \theta = \sin I \sin l, \quad EE' = \frac{3S.K}{v^2} \sin I \sin l \cos l. \]

Multiplying by \( dt \), and making the same substitutions as in the last proposition, we have \[ \int EE' dt = \frac{6 \pi K}{Tr(1-e^2)^{3/2}} \sin I \int \sin l \cos l \left[ 1 + e \cos (\lambda-\lambda_0) \right] dl. \] Precession whence neglecting as before terms multiplied by \( e \), and integrating, there results

\[ \int EE'dt = \frac{3\pi K}{2T_e} \sin I \cos 2I, \]

for the solar natalation in obliquity. This expression, depending on twice the cosine of the sun's longitude, runs through all its changes in half a year; but its greatest value amounts to scarcely half a second, and is consequently altogether insensible to observation.

**Prop. 6.** To investigate the precessional motion of the equinoxes produced by the moon. Let

\( M = \) moon's mass,

\( E = \) earth's mass,

\( I' = \) inclination of moon's orbit to the equator,

\( r' = \) moon's distance from the intersection of her orbit with the equator,

\( r'' = \) radius vector of the moon's orbit,

\( a' = \) semitransverse axis of moon's orbit,

\( e' = \) eccentricity of the lunar orbit,

\( T' = \) sidereal time of revolution.

Then, by following exactly the same reasoning as was pursued in prop. 4, there results for the retrograde motion of the points in which the plane of the lunar orbit intersects the plane of the equator (corresponding to the solar precession in prop. 4.), the expression

\[ \frac{3M.K \cos I'}{\nu} \int \frac{\sin r'}{r'^2} dt. \]

Now, we have \( dt = \frac{T' r'^2 dI'}{2\pi a'^2 \sqrt{1-e'^2}}, \) and \( r' = \frac{a'(1-e'^2)}{1+e'\cos(\lambda'-I')}. \)

Therefore \( \frac{dt}{r'^2} = \frac{T'\{1+e'\cos(\lambda'-I')\} dI'}{2\pi a'^2(1-e'^2)}. \)

But in the present case \( T' = \frac{2\pi}{\sqrt{(E+M)}} \) (for the mass of the moon cannot be neglected in comparison of that of the earth, as the mass of the earth is neglected in comparison of that of the sun),

hence \( \frac{1}{a'^2} = \frac{4\pi^2}{T'^2(E+M)}. \)

The above expression therefore becomes

\[ \frac{6\pi M.K \cos I'}{T'(E+M)} \int \frac{\sin r'}{r'^2} \{1+e'\cos(x-r')dI'\}, \]

the integral of which (rejecting, as before, terms multiplied by \( e' \)) gives

\[ \frac{3\pi M.K \cos I'}{T'(E+M)} (C+r-\frac{1}{2}\sin 2I'). \]

for the regression of the equator on the plane of the lunar orbit. Suppose \( r' \) to be increased by \( 2\pi \), or a whole circumference, the regression caused by the moon's action in a sidereal revolution becomes \( \frac{6\pi^2 M.K \cos I'}{T'(E+M)}. \)

It is now necessary to reduce this retrograde motion to the plane of the ecliptic.

Let \( AB \) be the ecliptic, \( ACB \) the equator, \( A'C'B' \) the new position of the equator, and \( FH \) the plane of the lunar orbit intersecting the new equator in \( F' \) and \( H' \), and the ecliptic in \( N \). The mean effect of the moon's action in the course of a month, if the earth had no motion of rotation, would be to bring the equator nearer the plane of the lunar orbit, causing it to revolve about the line of its intersection with the lunar orbit; therefore by Theorem I, the momentary axis of rotation lies in the plane passing through that line and the pole of the equator, and the equator is consequently twisted about the equatorial diameter which is perpendicular to the intersection of the equator and lunar orbit. Hence, \( FC = CH \) and \( F'C = CH' \); and since \( FC + CH = 180^\circ \), therefore \( FC \) and \( F'C \) are quadrantals arcs, and the two triangles \( CFF' \) and \( CHH' \) are in all respects equal. Now

\[ \sin FC : CF : FF' :: \sin FF' : ACA', \]

that is,

\[ 1 : \sin I' : FF' :: ACA', \]

and

\[ \sin CA'A : \sin AC :: \sin ACA' : \sin AA', \]

that is,

\[ \sin I : \cos AF : ACA' :: AA', \]

therefore,

\[ \sin I : \sin I' \cos AF :: FF' : AA', \]

and consequently,

\[ AA' = \frac{F'F \sin I' \cos AF}{\sin I}. \]

But \( AA' \) represents the velocity along the ecliptic, and \( FF' \) the velocity along the plane of the moon's orbit, and we have seen that the motion along this plane is \( \frac{6\pi^2 K.M \cos I'}{T'(E+M)} \), in the time \( T' \), or a sidereal revolution. Dividing this by \( T' \), we get the mean velocity in the plane of the orbit in the unit of time; whence \( FF' = \frac{6\pi^2 K.M \cos I'}{T'(E+M)} \).

For the sake of brevity let \( Q = \frac{6\pi^2 K.M}{T'(E+M)} \), then \( FF' = Q \cos I' \), and we have

\[ AA' = Q \cos I' \sin I' \cos AF. \]

We must now express \( \cos I' \sin I' \cos AF \), in terms of the obliquity and inclination of the lunar orbit to the ecliptic. Let \( i = ANF = \) inclination of moon's orbit to the ecliptic, \( n = NA \), the longitude of the node; then in the triangle \( ANF \), we have by spherical trigonometry,

\[ \cos ANF = \cos NAF \cos NFA + \sin NAF \sin NFA \cos AF, \]

that is, since \( NAF = I, NFA = I' \),

\[ \cos i = \cos I \cos I' + \sin I \sin I' \cos AF. \]

In like manner, in the same triangle,

\[ \cos I' = \cos I \cos I' + \sin I \sin I' \cos n. \]

From these two equations we obtain this other,

\[ \cos I' \sin I' \cos AF = \cos I \sin I \cos i. \]

which, on substituting in it \( 2I \) for \( I - I' - \sin 2I \),

\[ \frac{1}{2} \sin 2i \text{ for } \cos i \sin i, \text{ and } \frac{1}{2} \cos 2n \text{ for } \cos n, \]

becomes

\[ \cos I' \sin I' \cos AF = \cos I \sin I (\cos i - \frac{1}{2} \sin 2i). \]

Assuming \( i \) (the inclination of the moon's orbit) to be constant, which may be done in the present case without sensible error, the only variable in this expression is \( n \) (the longitude of the node), which, on the supposition of \( i \) constant, is proportional to the time. Let \( t \) denote the time of a revolution of the node, then for any time \( t \), we have

\[ n = \frac{2\pi t}{\tau}. \]

On making this substitution in the last equation, we obtain by means of it

\[ AA' = Q \left\{ \cos I (\cos i - \frac{1}{2} \sin 2i) \right\} \]

\[ = \frac{1}{2} \cos 2I \sin 2i \frac{2\pi t}{\tau} \cos \frac{4\pi t}{\tau}. \]

Now, if we assume \( y = \) the regression of the equinoctial points on the ecliptic caused by the lunar action, and sup- pose \( y \) a function of \( t \), then \( AA' = \frac{dy}{dt} \), and the amount of this regression in a given time \( = \int \frac{dy}{dt} dt \). Multiplying therefore the right hand side of the last equation by \( dt \), and integrating (observing that \( \int \cos \frac{2\pi t}{T} dt = \frac{\tau}{2\pi} \sin \frac{2\pi t}{T} \)), we obtain, finally, for the regression of the equinoctial points, or the precessional motion of the equinoxes, produced by the moon in the time \( t \),

\[ Q \left\{ \cos I (\cos i - \frac{1}{2} \sin i) t + \frac{\tau}{4\pi} \cos 2I \sin 2i \sin \frac{2\pi t}{T} - \frac{\tau}{8\pi} \cos i \sin^2 i \sin \frac{4\pi t}{T} \right\} + \text{const.} \]

The first term of this expression increases uniformly with the time, and is called the lunar precession. The second term, being multiplied by \( \sin \frac{2\pi t}{T} \), is periodic, and depends on the mean longitude of the moon's ascending node. It is called the lunar equation of the equinoxes in longitude.

The third term is also periodic, but its numerical value is so small as to be insensible, and it is therefore omitted in the calculation. The lunar precession in a sidereal year is found by substituting \( T \) for \( t \) in the first term, and we have, therefore,

lunar annual precession \( = Q \cos I (\cos i - \frac{1}{2} \sin i) T \).

**Prop. 7.** To find the diminution in the inclination of the equator to the ecliptic produced by the moon's action.

Let \( AB \) be bisected in \( D \), and let \( DE \) be an arc perpendicular to \( AB \), and meeting \( A'B' \) in \( E' \); then the alteration of obliquity produced by the moon in the time \( dt \) is represented by \( EE' \). Now in the triangle \( CEF' \) we have

\[ \sin CF' : \sin CFF' :: \sin FF' : \sin FCP', \]

that is,

\[ 1 : \sin I' :: FF' : FCF'; \]

and in the triangle \( CEE' \),

\[ \sin CEE' : \sin CE :: \sin ECE' : \sin EE' \]

that is, by reason of \( CE = AF \) (since \( FC = AE = 90^\circ \)) and \( ECE' = FCF' \)

\[ 1 : \sin AF :: FCF' : EE'; \]

whence \( EE' = FF' \sin I' \sin AF \). Now it was shewn in the last proposition that \( FF' = Q \cos I' \), therefore

\[ EE' = Q \cos I' \sin I' \sin AF. \]

To refer this to the ecliptic we have in the triangle \( NAF \),

\[ \sin NFA : \sin ANF :: \sin AN : \sin AF \]

which gives the equation

\[ \sin I' \sin AF = \sin i \sin n; \]

and, as before we have

\[ \cos I' = \cos I \cos i + \sin I \sin i \cos n; \]

whence multiplying the two equations together, and substituting \( \frac{1}{2} \sin 2i \) for \( \cos i \sin i \), and \( \frac{1}{2} \sin 2n \) for \( \cos n \sin n \), we get

\[ \cos I' \sin I' \sin AF = \frac{1}{2} \cos I \sin 2i \sin n + \frac{1}{2} \sin I \sin^2 i \sin 2n, \]

and, consequently, writing for \( n \) its value \( \frac{2\pi t}{T} \),

\[ EE' = Q \left\{ \frac{1}{2} \cos I \sin 2i \sin \frac{2\pi t}{T} + \frac{1}{2} \sin I \sin^2 i \sin \frac{4\pi t}{T} \right\}. \]

Multiplying this by \( dt \) and integrating, we obtain for the diminution of the inclination, or lunar nutation in obliquity

\[ -Q \left( \frac{\tau}{4\pi} \cos I \sin 2i \cos \frac{2\pi t}{T} + \frac{\tau}{8\pi} \cos i \sin^2 i \cos \frac{4\pi t}{T} \right). \]

Both terms of this expression are periodic; but the second is omitted in the calculation, as being too small to be sensible. Hence we have

\[ \text{lunar nutation in obliquity} = -Q \left( \frac{\tau}{4\pi} \cos I \sin 2i \cos \frac{2\pi t}{T} \right). \]

**Prop. 8.** To compute the numerical value of the annual precession.

By prop. 4, the solar precession in one year \( = \frac{6\pi K \cos I}{T_e} \).

Now \( T_e \) is the angle which any point of the earth describes about its axis of rotation in a sidereal year, or 366-26 days, and consequently \( = 2\pi \times 366-26 \). The solar precession therefore becomes \( \frac{3\pi K \cos (23^\circ 28')} {366-26} \) expressed in parts of the radius. To reduce it to seconds, we have, assuming radius \( = 1 \), \( w = 180^\circ = 180 \times 60 \times 60 = 648000 \) seconds. Substituting this for \( w \), and computing the above expression by the logarithmic tables we get

solar annual precession \( = K \times 4869'' \).

By prop. 6, the lunar precession in a sidereal year (on substituting for \( Q \) its value) is \( \frac{6\pi K \cdot M}{T_e^2 (E+M)} \cos I (\cos i - \frac{1}{2} \sin i) T \). But \( T_e \) is the angle described by the diurnal rotation of the earth in one sidereal revolution of the moon, or 27-32 days (Astronomy, vol. iv.), and therefore \( = 2\pi \times 27-32 \). We have also \( i = 5^\circ 8' 47'' \), and, as before, \( T = 366-26 \) days. Now assuming the moon's mass \( = 1/70 \)th of the earth's mass, \( M = (E+M) = \frac{1}{71} \). By the substitution of these numbers, the lunar annual precession becomes

\[ \frac{3\pi K \times 366-26 \times \cos (23^\circ 28') \times \left\{ 1 - \frac{3}{5} \sin^2 (5^\circ 8' 50'') \right\}} {27-32 \times 27-32 \times 71}, \]

the calculation of which, reduced to seconds as before, gives

lunar annual precession \( = K \times 12176'' \).

Adding this to the solar annual precession, we obtain the effect produced by the joint action of the sun and moon, or luni-solar annual precession \( = K \times 17045'' \).

It is now necessary to assign a value to the quantity \( K \) which depends on the law of the density of the earth. Supposing the earth homogeneous, we have \( K = \frac{a^2 - b^2}{a^2 + b^2} = \frac{e}{1-e} \), being the ellipticity \( = \frac{1}{301} \). This value of \( K \) gives

luni-solar annual precession \( = \frac{17045''}{300} = 56''82 \).

The observed quantity is only 50''4; the difference being occasioned chiefly by the erroneous assumption of the homogeneity of the earth. If the earth be denser towards the centre, (and it is known to be so from other phenomena), the momentum of the protuberant parts will not be so great as if it were equally dense with the interior parts, and the precession will be less. From Cavendish's experiment, and experiments on the attraction of mountains, it has been ascertained that the mean density of the whole earth is about five times greater than that of water, and twice as great as that of the solid substances composing its exterior crust. But we are entirely ignorant of the law according to which the density varies from the surface towards the centre; and an infinity of hypotheses may be made which would give the observed precession, and at the same time satisfy the condition of a superficial density equal to half the mean density.

**Prop. 9.** To compute the numerical value of the solar and lunar nutation.

The solar nutation consists of two parts. The first is the solar equation of the equinoxes in longitude, or the second term of the expression for the solar precession in prop. 4, its value is \( \frac{3\pi K}{T_e} \cos I \times \frac{1}{2} \sin 2t \). Substituting \( 2\pi \times 365-26 \) for \( T_e \), and multiplying by \( \frac{180 \times 60 \times 60}{\pi} \) to reduce to seconds, the computation gives

1st part of solar nutation \( = K \times 387'' \times \sin 2t \).

The second part is the nutation in obliquity, found by prop. 5, the value of which is \( \frac{3\pi K}{T_e} \sin I \times \frac{1}{2} \cos 2t \). This being computed in the same manner as the last gives

2nd part of solar nutation \( = K \times 168'' \times \cos 2t \).

Assuming the earth to be homogeneous, and consequently \( K = \frac{1}{300} \), we have for the sum of the two parts

solar nutation \( = 20'' \times 29 \sin (E + M) \times \cos 2t \),

both terms being so small as to be insensible to observation.

The lunar nutation is also composed of two parts; the first being the lunar equation of the equinoxes in longitude, or the second term of the expression in prop. 6; and the second the nutation in obliquity found in prop. 7. By prop. 6, the first of these parts is

\[ \frac{3\pi K \cdot M \cdot \tau}{2T^2v(E+M)} \cdot \cos I \times \sin 2t \times \frac{2\pi t}{\tau}, \]

which, since \( \tau = 186 \times 365-26 \) days, becomes, on substituting for the different quantities their numerical values, and reducing to seconds,

\[ K \times \frac{3 \times 64800 \times 186 \times 365-26 \times \cos (46^\circ 56') \times \sin (10^\circ 17' 36'')} {2 \times (27-32) \times 2 \times 71 \times \sin (23^\circ 28')} \times \frac{2\pi t}{\tau}, \]

whence there is found from computation,

lunar nutation in longitude \( = K \times 6093'' \times \sin \frac{2\pi t}{\tau} \).

By prop. 7, the lunar nutation in obliquity becomes, on substituting for \( Q \) its value, and neglecting the sign,

\[ \frac{3\pi K \cdot M \cdot \tau}{2T^2v(E+M)} \cdot \cos I \times \sin 2t \times \cos \frac{2\pi t}{\tau}. \]

Comparing the coefficient of \( \cos \frac{2\pi t}{\tau} \) in this expression with that of \( \sin \frac{2\pi t}{\tau} \) in the above, it is obvious that the latter is found by multiplying the former by \( \cos I \times \sin I \times \frac{\sin 2I}{\cos 2I} \)

\[ = \tan 2I = \tan (46^\circ 56'). \]

The multiplication gives

lunar nutation in obliquity \( = K \times 3260'' \times \cos \frac{2\pi t}{\tau} \).

Assuming that the earth is homogeneous, and consequently \( K = \frac{1}{300} \), these two parts added together give

lunar nutation \( = 20'' \times 31 \sin \frac{2\pi t}{\tau} + 10'' \times 88 \cos \frac{2\pi t}{\tau} \).

The observed values of the coefficients are 18''36 and 9''239, the differences between the observed and computed values, as in the case of the precession, arising from the assumption of the uniform density of the earth.

Prop. 10. To determine the motion of the pole of the earth's axis of rotation.

As the inclination of the equator to the ecliptic undergoes no permanent alteration in consequence of the action of the sun and moon, and as the precessional motion of the equinoxes is proportional to the time, it follows that, abstracting the effects of lunar and solar nutation, the pole of the equator must describe a circle about the pole of the ecliptic, the plane of which is parallel to the ecliptic, and of which the radius is equal to the sine of the obliquity, or \( \sin (23^\circ 28') \). The mean velocity corresponding to the regression of the equinoctial points, is 50''4 in a year, and consequently the period of a revolution is about 25900 years. Now in order to take account of the lunar nutation (the solar, as has already been remarked, is scarcely sensible), it is only necessary to remark that the absolute velocity of the pole in its small circle, is to the velocity with which the equinoctial points regress in the ecliptic, as the radius of the small circle to the radius of the ecliptic, or as \( \sin I : 1 \). Hence the motion of the pole in the plane of the small circle, is obtained by multiplying the expression in prop. 6, by \( \sin I \); and therefore the correction to be applied to the uniform motion of the pole, is the second term of that expression, multiplied by \( \sin I \), or \( \sin I \times \text{lunar equation of the equinoxes in longitude} \). But by prop. 9, this term \( = K \times 6093'' \times \sin \frac{2\pi t}{\tau} \), therefore the corresponding motion of the pole \( = K \times 6093'' \times \sin (23^\circ 28') \times \sin \frac{2\pi t}{\tau} = K \times 2427'' \times \sin \frac{2\pi t}{\tau} \).

With respect to the second part of the nutation, it is obvious that any change of obliquity produces an equal change in the place of the pole on the meridian, and therefore, by the last proposition, the motion of the pole in this direction is \( K \times 3260'' \times \cos \frac{2\pi t}{\tau} \). Now let \( K \times 2427'' = a \), and \( K \times 3260'' = b \), and let the motion of the pole in the two directions be respectively denoted by \( x \) and \( y \), we have then \( x = a \sin \frac{2\pi t}{\tau}, y = b \cos \frac{2\pi t}{\tau} \); and consequently the equation

\[ \frac{x^2}{a^2} + \frac{y^2}{b^2} = 1; \]

which is the equation to an ellipse, and shows that the pole describes a small ellipse about its mean place in the course of a revolution of the nodes, as was discovered by Bradley from observation.

Prop. 11. From the observed values of the precession and nutation, to determine the ratio of the moon's mass to the mass of the earth.

The quantities most accurately determined from observation, from which the moon's mass can be found, are the whole annual precession \( p \) (\( = 50''4 \)), and the coefficient of the lunar nutation in obliquity \( q \) (\( = 9''239 \)). Let \( s \) = the solar annual precession, and \( m \) = the lunar annual precession, then \( s = p - m \). Now, by prop. 7, \( q = \frac{Q \cdot r}{4\pi} \cos I \sin 2I \), and, by prop. 6, \( m = Q \cos I (\cos i - \frac{1}{2} \sin i) \), whence by eliminating \( Q \cos I \), we get

\[ m = \frac{q \cdot 4\pi \cdot T(\cos i - \frac{1}{2} \sin i)}{r \sin 2I}, \]

and on computing \( m \) from the values of \( T, r \) and \( i \) above given, we find \( m = q \times 8''735 = 34''51 \); therefore, also, \( s = p - m = 15''89 \).

Again, from prop. 4, we have \( s = \frac{6\pi^2 \cdot K \cdot \cos I}{T_e} \), and from prop. 6, (on substituting for \( Q \) its value), \( m = \frac{6\pi^2 \cdot K \cdot M \cos I}{T^2v(E+M)} (\cos i - \frac{1}{2} \sin i) \), hence

\[ \frac{s}{m} = \frac{T^2v(E+M)}{T^2v(E+M)} \cdot \frac{E+M}{M}. \]

By computing the coefficient of \( (E+M) \cdot M \), and by means of the values \( s \) and \( m \) now found, this equation gives

\[ \frac{E+M}{M} = 81'755, \]

whence it follows that the mass of the moon is to the mass of the earth in the ratio of 1 to 80'755.

The phenomena of the precession and nutation, and those of the tides, are the only astronomical facts which enable us to determine the moon's mass. From a long series of observations on the tides at the harbour of Brest, Laplace found the ratio of the masses of the moon and earth to be $1:7577$.

The regression of the equinoctial points amongst the fixed stars, and consequent precession of the equinoxes, being a motion which, though extremely slow (amounting only to a degree in about seventy-two years), increases constantly with the time, was detected at an early period in the history of astronomy, and its rate was determined with considerable accuracy by Hipparchus. Its physical cause was of course not suspected until after the discovery of gravitation; but Newton himself, by a process of reasoning, which, although not quite accurate, affords some of the most remarkable instances of his extraordinary sagacity (*Principia*, lib. iii., prop. 39), showed it to be a necessary consequence of the flattened form of the earth. D'Alembert was the first who gave a general and accurate solution of the problem, in his *Recherches sur la Précédence des Équinoxes* (1749); and Euler also treated the subject in the *Berlin Memoirs* for the same year. Various solutions of the problem have since been given, amongst which may be mentioned those of Sylvabella and Walmsley in the *Philosophical Transactions* (vols. xlviii. and xlix.); that of Frisi in his *Theoria Geometrica Diurni Motús* (Opera, tom. iii.); that of Lagrange in his *Memoir on the Liberation of the Moon*, which obtained the prize of the Academy of Sciences of Paris for 1769; that of Landen (*Mathematical Memoirs*, 1780); and that of Vince (*Philosophical Transactions*, 1787). Of these solutions, that of Frisi deserves to be noticed as perhaps the most perspicuous and elegant. An excellent elementary demonstration is given by Mr Airy, the present astronomer-royal, in his *Mathematical Tracts* (1826 and 1831), of which we have freely availed ourselves in the present article; but for a complete investigation of the question in all its generality, we must refer the reader to the *Mécanique Céleste*, and still more particularly to a *Mémoire de Poisson*, "Sur le Mouvement de la Terre autour de son Centre de Gravité," in the *Mémoires de l'Académie Royale des Sciences*, tome vii., 1829.

The nutation, as has already been remarked (see also *ASTRONOMY*, vol. iv., p. 13), was detected by Bradley, from a comparison of observations which were undertaken with a view to determine the parallax of the fixed stars. Bradley assigned to the co-efficient or constant of nutation the value $9°$, which till a late period was adopted by most astronomers. Laplace computed its value from theory to be $9°63$; but as this result could only be obtained by having recourse to hypotheses respecting the ellipticity and density of the earth, and also the mass of the moon, which may possibly differ considerably from the truth, it cannot be regarded as of much weight. There are, however, three other determinations of the constant (besides that of Bradley), from observation, which may be supposed to give its value with all the precision that is capable of being attained. The first is that of Von Lindenau, from about 800 observations of Polaris made between the years 1750 and 1815, and consequently including three revolutions of the moon's node; as well as from those made by Bradley, Maskelyne, Bessel, Carlini, Piazzi, and Von Lindenau himself. From these observations he found the value of the constant of nutation to be $8°97718$. The second determination is that of Dr Brinkley (*Philosophical Transactions*, 1821), deduced from his own observations with the Dublin Mural Circle; and the value which he found was $9°25$. The third determination, and that which has the greatest probability in its favour, is a very recent one by Dr Robinson of Armagh, undertaken at the instance of the British Association. It is deduced from 11,000 observations made at Greenwich with the mural circle, between the years 1812 and 1834, and embraces more than a complete revolution of the node. The result gives the constant of nutation = $9°23913$. (See the *Monthly Notices* of the Royal Astronomical Society for May 1838.)

Since the above was written M. Poisson, member of the Institute of France, has proved (1858) from mathematical calculations, founded on his theory of couples, that by the law of gravitation, the earth's axis must describe an oscillation of 1°08 seconds in virtue of the attraction of the sun, and 16°9 seconds in virtue of that of the moon, or about 18 seconds in all in the course of nine years and three months, after which a similar oscillation takes place in a contrary direction. This quantity of 18 seconds all but exactly coincides with the results of observation; and his determination of the precession is equally exact, since he finds it to be 50°4 seconds. He has likewise proved that the precession would be the same if the earth, instead of being a solid spheroid, were hollow, or if its mass or volume were changed, provided its momentum of inertia remained the same.

---

**PRECIOUS METALS.**

Precious Metals, a designation given to gold and silver. These, though not the most useful of the metals, having been converted into coin and used from a remote period to perform the functions of money, have in consequence been generally regarded as of peculiar importance, and dignified with the epithet "precious."

The reader will find in the articles Gold and Silver in this work descriptive notices of these metals; and the mode in which they are obtained is explained in the article Mining. In this article we mean to confine ourselves to an inquiry into the magnitude of their supply, their consumption, and their probable future value in exchange. And as these metals serve as standards by which to measure the values of other things, and as the equivalents for which they are most commonly exchanged, it is plain that these inquiries involve considerations of the highest importance, and which deeply affect the interests of all classes. Unluckily, however, the difficulty of such investigations is at least as great as their importance. They are not, in truth, of a kind to afford any certain conclusions, and we must be contented with those that seem to present on the whole the greatest amount of probability.

Jacob,¹ and others who have engaged in inquiries relative to this subject, have carried their researches to a very remote epoch, and have tried to amuse their readers with estimates of the quantities of gold and silver in existence at different epochs, such as the commencement of the Christian era, the year 1492, when America was discovered, and so forth. But though these estimates, and the researches which serve as their basis, may illustrate the learning and industry of their authors, no reliance can be safely placed on their accuracy. Even at present, when most matters that have reference to currency and commerce are the objects of study and research, and many of them are embodied in official returns, the difficulties in the way of accurate investigation are often all but insuperable. And

¹ The author of an *Historical Inquiry into the Production and Consumption of the Precious Metals*, 8vo, 2 vols., London, 1831. when such is now the case, what must be the chance of our coming to anything like correct conclusions in regard to the like subjects at remote periods, when these inquiries were almost entirely neglected, and when, in the lapse of ages, the few records that might have originally existed have either been much mutilated or wholly destroyed? The truth is, that the estimates of the amount of the precious metals extant in the world at the epochs referred to, are not worth the ink with which they are written. They may chance not to be wide of the mark, but there are no means of judging whether such is or is not the case. The investigations which they involve are buried in an obscurity which most likely will never be dispelled.

Dismissing, therefore, such unfruitful inquiries, we shall not in this article carry our researches farther back than the discovery of America, and shall principally confine ourselves to a consideration of the events of the last twelve or twenty years. Those, indeed, that belong to previous periods are principally interesting as they may serve to throw light on the latter.

**Part I.—Supply of the Precious Metals.**

Since the discovery of America, by far the greatest supplies of gold and silver have been derived from that continent. Previously to the publication of Humboldt's *Essai Politique sur la Nouvelle Espagne*, several estimates, some of which were framed by individuals of great intelligence, had been given of the quantities of gold and silver imported from America. They, however, differed widely from each other, and were all deduced from comparatively limited sources of information. When brought together, they exhibit the following results:

**Estimates of the Imports of the Precious Metals from America into Europe since 1492.**

| Authorities | Periods | Total Estimated Index | Annual Estimated Index | |-------------|---------|-----------------------|------------------------| | Ustariz | 1492-1724 | 3,536,000,000 | 17,922,261 | | Solozano | 1492-1628 | 1,560,000,000 | | | Moncada | 1492-1525 | 2,000,000,000 | | | Navarrete | 1519-1617 | 1,526,000,000 | | | Raval | 1492-1780 | 5,154,000,000 | | | Robertson | 1492-1775 | 8,000,000,000 | | | Necker | 1763-1777 | 304,000,000 | | | Gerboux | 1724-1800 | 1,600,000,000 | | | The Author of Researches in Commerce, Amst. 1776 | 1492-1775 | 5,072,000,000 | |

Of these estimates, that which bears the name of Robertson is very greatly in excess of the others, and is certainly the widest of the mark. But in looking into the work of that judicious and excellent historian, he hardly seems to be responsible for the computation. It is, in truth, the estimate of the Spanish authorities to which he refers, and is not founded upon any investigations or inquiries of his own. (*History of America*, iii., p. 389, ed. 1778.)

But all previous estimates have been wholly superseded by those founded on the more extensive and laborious investigations of Humboldt. Besides being acquainted with all that had been written on the subject, and having ready access to sources of information unknown to the writers already alluded to, this illustrious traveller was well versed in the theory and practice of mining, and critically examined several of the most celebrated mines. He was therefore incomparably better qualified for forming correct conclusions as to the past and present productiveness of the mines than any of those who had previously speculated on the subject. His statements have indeed been accused of exaggeration, and there seem to be good grounds for believing that this charge is in some measure well founded, particularly as respects the accounts of the profits made by mining, and of the extent to which the supplies of the precious metals may be increased. But this criticism applies, if at all, in a very inferior degree to the accounts Humboldt has given of the total produce of the mines, and the exports to Europe. And making every allowance for the imperfection inseparable from such investigations, it is still true that the statements in question, and the inquiries on which they are founded, are among the most valuable contributions that have been made to statistical science.

According to Humboldt, the annual average supplies of the precious metals derived from America have been as follows:

| From 1492 to 1500 | 250,000 | |-------------------|---------| | " 1500 to 1545 | 3,000,000 | | " 1545 to 1600 | 11,000,000 | | " 1600 to 1700 | 16,000,000 | | " 1700 to 1750 | 25,500,000 | | " 1750 to 1803 | 35,300,000 |

(*Essai sur la Nouvelle Espagne*, iii. 428, 2d ed.) The following is Humboldt's estimate of the annual produce of the mines of the New World at the beginning of the present century:

**Annual Produce of the Mines of America at the Commencement of the Nineteenth Century.**

| Political Divisions | Gold | Silver | Value of the Gold and Silver, in Dollars | |---------------------|------|--------|----------------------------------------| | | Mares of Castile | Kilogs. | Mares of Castile | Kilogs. | | | Viceroyalty of New Spain | 7,000 | 1,009 | 2,338,220,537,512 | 23,000,000 | | Viceroyalty of Peru | 3,400 | 782 | 611,090,140,470 | 6,240,000 | | Captain-General of Chili | 12,212 | 2,807 | 29,700 | 6,827 | 2,060,000 | | Viceroyalty of Buenos Ayres | 2,200 | 506 | 481,330 | 110,764 | 4,850,000 | | Viceroyalty of New Granada & Brazil | 30,505 | 4,714 | ... | ... | 2,990,000 | | Total | 75,217 | 17,291 | 3,460,400,785,581 | 43,600,000 |

Taking the dollar at 4s. 6d., this would give L9,666,000 for the total annual produce of the American mines. Humboldt further estimated the annual produce of the European mines of Hungary, Saxony, &c., and those of Northern Asia, at the same period, at about L1,000,000 more; making, in round numbers, their entire production nearly L1,100,000.

The quantity of gold produced in America at the beginning of the century was to the quantity of silver as 1 to 46; in Europe the proportions were as 1 to 40. The value of equal quantities of gold and silver were then in the proportion of 15 or 154 to 1.

From 1800 to 1809 the yield of the American mines continued to increase, and their produce, and that of the Jacob European and Russian mines, was then probably rather above than below L12,500,000. But in the last-mentioned year the contest began, which terminated in the dissolution of the connection between Spain and her American colonies. The convulsions and insecurity arising out of this struggle, the proscription of the old Spanish families, to whom the mines principally belonged, who repaired with the wrecks of their fortunes, some to Cuba, some to Spain, and some to Bordeaux and the south of France, caused the abandonment of several of the mines, and an extraordinary falling off in the amount of their produce. There are no means of estimating the precise extent of this decline; but, according to Jacob, who collected and compared the existing information on the subject, the total average produce of Supply of Precious Metals

Supply of the American mines, inclusive of Brazil, during the twenty years ending with 1829, may be estimated at L4,036,838 a year, being less than half their produce at the beginning of the century! (Jacob, i. 267.)

It has, however, been supposed that Jacob rather exaggerated the falling off. And, at all events, the supplies of bullion obtained from Mexico and South America began soon after the publication of his work (1831) to increase; and notwithstanding the anarchy to which they have continued to be a prey, that increase has been maintained down to the present time (1838).

It appears, from the returns sent home by the British consuls, that the coinage of gold and silver in the Mexican mints amounted in 1847 to 16,923,948 dols., and in 1848 to 19,506,754 dols. But it is well known that considerable quantities of these metals are raised and exported from Mexico without being brought to the mints to be coined. And, taking this item into account, we shall not perhaps be very wide of the mark if we estimate the entire produce of the Mexican mines in 1847 and 1848 at about 19,000,000 and 21,500,000 dols., of which from 17,000,000 to 20,500,000 dols. were in silver.

The discovery of new mines, and the greater cheapness and more abundant supplies of quicksilver obtained from California, have conspired to increase the produce of the Mexican mines during the last half-dozen years. And though these circumstances have been to a considerable extent counterbalanced by the unsettled state of public affairs, gold and the greater insecurity that has prevailed during the 1857 and period referred to, yet, on the whole, it appears to be pretty well established that there has been a material increase.

In 1850 the produce of the Peruvian mines was estimated at about 6,000,000 dols., and it is not supposed to have varied much in the interval.

The produce of the Bolivian mines is usually estimated at about a third part of the produce of those of Peru.

In 1857 the value of the gold and silver in coin, bars, and ore exported from Chili amounted, according to the custom-house returns, to 4,185,284 dols.; and we are assured that we shall not be far wrong if we estimate the total produce of the Chilian mines at about 5,000,000 dols.

The elaborate estimates of Birkmyre, Chevalier (Monnaie, p. 228), and other authorities, in regard to the produce of the mines of Brazil, New Granada, and other parts

---

**Comparative Table, showing the Annual Produce (approximate Calculation) in value of Fine Gold and Silver for 1846 and 1850, the first being Two Years before the Discovery of the rich deposits of Gold in California; the latter, Two Years after the Discovery.**

| Countries | 1846 | 1850 | |----------------------------|--------------|--------------| | | Gold | Silver | Total | Gold | Silver | Total | | California | | | | | | | | United States | 237,336 | 1,864 | 239,200 | 12,062,000 | 62,088 | 12,062,088 | | Mexico | 249,753 | 3,457,020 | 3,706,773 | 382,901 | 5,383,833 | 5,766,734 | | New Grenada | 252,407 | 42,929 | 295,336 | 252,407 | 42,929 | 295,336 | | Peru | 96,241 | 1,060,583 | 1,096,824 | 96,241 | 1,060,583 | 1,096,824 | | Bolivia | 60,337 | 460,191 | 520,528 | 60,337 | 460,191 | 520,528 | | Chili | 145,585 | 297,029 | 442,614 | 145,585 | 297,029 | 442,614 | | Brazil | 259,871 | 2,003 | 261,874 | 259,871 | 2,003 | 261,874 | | **Total of North and South America** | **1,301,560** | **5,261,019** | **6,563,179** | **13,341,989** | **7,259,824** | **20,601,813** | | Russia | 3,414,427 | 167,831 | 3,582,258 | 4,175,860 | 171,817 | 4,347,677 | | Norway | | 32,346 | 32,346 | | 33,607 | 33,607 | | North Germany | 357 | 138,622 | 138,979 | 357 | 138,622 | 138,979 | | Saxony | | 198,200 | 198,200 | | 198,200 | 198,200 | | Austria | 282,750 | 282,554 | 565,404 | 298,708 | 298,708 | 597,416 | | Piedmont | 17,841 | 7,444 | 25,285 | 17,841 | 7,444 | 25,285 | | Spain | 2,488 | 227,499 | 229,987 | 2,488 | 227,499 | 229,987 | | United Kingdom | | 109,989 | 109,989 | | 160,000 | 160,000 | | Africa | 203,900 | 1,056 | 204,956 | 203,900 | 1,056 | 204,956 | | Borneo | 305,900 | 1,684 | 307,584 | 305,900 | 1,584 | 307,484 | | Ava | 100,000 | 517 | 100,517 | 100,000 | 517 | 100,517 | | Malacca | 72,240 | 374 | 72,614 | 72,240 | 374 | 72,614 | | Sumatra | 63,719 | 339 | 64,049 | 63,719 | 339 | 64,049 | | Annam or Tonquin | 39,685 | 53,460 | 93,145 | 39,685 | 53,460 | 93,145 | | Various countries* | 50,975 | 32,000 | 82,975 | 50,975 | 32,000 | 82,975 | | **Total of Europe, Africa, and Asia** | **4,545,192** | **1,254,308** | **5,799,498** | **5,312,533** | **1,528,592** | **6,840,975** | | **Total of North and South America** | **1,301,560** | **5,261,019** | **6,563,179** | **13,341,989** | **7,259,824** | **20,601,813** | | **Total** | **5,846,752** | **6,515,925** | **12,362,677** | **18,654,522** | **8,788,416** | **27,442,938** |

* Exclusive of China and Japan, which produce large quantities of gold and silver, the amount of which is quite unknown to Europeans.

---

"The quantities of gold and silver produced at the under-mentioned epochs were:—In 1801, the quantity of pure gold produced in America was 46,331 lb.; in Europe and Northern Asia (exclusive of China and Japan), 4,918 lb.; total produce, 51,247 lb. = 55,910 lb. British standard gold = L5,618,222. In 1846 the quantity of pure gold produced in America was 25,503 lb.; in Europe, Africa, and Asia (exclusive of China and Japan), 89,171 lb.; total produce, 114,674 lb. = 125,108 lb. British standard gold = L5,846,772. In 1850, the quantity of pure gold produced in America was 29,731 lb.; in Europe, Africa, and Asia (exclusive of China and Japan), 104,219 lb.; total produce, 365,950 lb. = 399,247 lb. British standard gold = L5,846,772. The quantities stated are considerably less than the actual production. The duties on gold in Russia on the produce of the private mines are heavy, varying from 12 to 24 per cent.; in Austria they amount to 10 per cent., in Brazil to 5 per cent., and are understood to lead to a great deal of smuggling. In other countries, such as the United States, where there are no duties, the gold and silver stated in the table are only the quantities brought to the mints to be coined, there being no means of determining the quantity used in jewellery and other arts and manufactures." Supply of Precious Metals of America, differ very widely; and there is, in truth, little besides conjecture on which to form an estimate. Probably, however, it may amount, excluding California, to about 4,000,000 dols. The above results, when brought together, give for the estimated produce of the American mines:

| Country | Produce (dollars) | |-------------|-------------------| | Mexico | 23,000,000 | | Peru | 6,000,000 | | Bolivia | 2,000,000 | | Chili | 5,000,000 | | Other parts | 4,000,000 | | **Total** | **40,000,000** |

This sum is equivalent, at 4s. 6d. per dol., to nearly L9,000,000; the value of the silver produced being from five to six times greater than that of the gold.

It is perhaps needless to observe that all investigations into matters of this sort are liable to be affected by so many sources of error that, even when they are most skilfully and cautiously conducted, their results are not always to be depended upon. But, speaking generally, we are disposed to think that the previous estimates are rather within than beyond the mark. It is worthy of remark that they do not differ much from Humboldt's estimate (43,500,000 dols.) of the produce of the American mines in the early part of the century.

In Russia. Russian Mines.—Small supplies of the precious metals have been for a lengthened period obtained from Russia. But since 1830, and more especially since 1840, the produce of the Russian mines and washings, but principally the latter, has been rapidly and largely increased. Thus the produce of gold from the Siberian washings and the mines of the Ural, which amounted (according to the official returns) to 3875 kilog. in 1826, had increased in 1840 to 8786 kilog., and in 1847 to 27,362 kilog. Since then, however, the produce has rather fallen off; and during the three years ended with 1854, their average yield amounted to only 22,768 kilog. a year. Formerly the value of the silver supplied by Russia greatly exceeded that of the gold; but since 1830 this has not been the case; for, while the produce of gold has been so very greatly increased, that of silver has varied but little (from 17,000 to 18,000 kilog. a year), so that the value of the former is now about twenty times that of the latter. The following table, extracted from the work of M. Otreschkoff, is founded on official returns, and gives a view of the production of the precious metals in Russia down to 1855:

| Years | Gold Kilogs | Silver Kilogs | Annual Average of Total Prod. | |-------------|-------------|---------------|-------------------------------| | 1810 to 1825| 16,485 | 54,238 | 64,723 | | 1825 to 1840| 148,250 | 77,440 | 125,690 | | 1840 to 1854| 75,547 | 292,039 | 367,586 | | 1851 to 1855| 92,085 | 307,200 | 400,285 | | **Total** | **415,610** | **1,386,516** | **1,802,126** |

The Russian authorities have ascribed the falling off in the produce of the mines and washings since 1847 to the exhaustion of the deposits and the unskilfulness of those engaged in the business. But though this be most probably the case to some extent, it is believed that it has been in part also occasioned by the heavy taxes imposed on the gold raised by private parties. These vary in amount according to the productiveness of the mines and supply of washings, from about 12 to 24 or 25 per cent, and are most oppressive.

While, however, it may be fairly assumed that these heavy duties have tended to lessen the produce of gold, there can be little doubt that their principal effect has been to defeat themselves by tempting the parties concerned to adopt every means for their evasion, which the notorious corruption of the revenue officers renders an easy matter. And in addition to the influence of these circumstances over the private mines, the depredations and carelessness of the parties employed to work the crown mines tells quite as much over their produce: so that we need not be surprised that it has been doubted whether from a third to a half, or more, of the gold furnished by the Russian mines and washings be not omitted in the official returns. But, taking the deficit at a fourth part only, and supposing the official produce of the washings and mines to amount at present (1858) to about 70,000,000 fr. a year, the real produce would be equal to 87,500,000 fr., or L3,500,000 sterling. It is said that the Russian government intend to throw open the crown mines and washings to the public, and at the same time to make a large reduction in the duties on the produce obtained from the private mines. This would be sound policy; and if it be adopted, a considerable increase in the supplies of gold and silver may be anticipated.

Product of Gold and Silver in other parts of Europe. In Europe.—It might have been supposed that the late extraordinary influx of the precious metals from California and Australia would have given a serious check to their production in Europe; such, however, has not been the case, but on the contrary it has considerably increased within the last ten or twelve years.

Our readers are aware that lead ore always contains a greater or less quantity of silver; and when the value of the latter is sufficient to repay the expense, it is usual to extract it by means of the process of "refining." This process has latterly been much improved, and is now profitably applied to ores to which it was formerly unsuitable. And as silver in Europe is mostly obtained from lead, this has been a principal source of its late increase.

In 1845 some rich mines of argentiferous lead were discovered in the provinces of Murcia and Granada in Spain, not far from Alicante; the yield of silver from which, and the mines in other parts of the peninsula, is believed to amount to L500,000 or L600,000 a year. The produce of the Austrian and German gold and silver mines has also increased, and small quantities are furnished by Piedmont, France, and other parts of the Continent.

The reader may perhaps be surprised to learn that, in consequence principally of the improved process of refining already referred to, no fewer than 532,866 oz. of silver were obtained from lead in the United Kingdom in 1857, which, at 5s. an oz., was worth L133,216, 10s.

The total annual production of the precious metals in Europe, exclusive of Russia, may be roughly estimated to have amounted in 1857 and 1858 to L1,500,000 or L1,600,000 a year.

On the whole, therefore, it may reasonably be concluded that the aggregate production of the precious metals (excluding the produce of the Californian and Australian gold and silver fields) in America, Asiatic Russia, and Europe in 1857, or in 1858 rather in each of the three years ending with 1857, amounted to about L14,050,000, viz.:—

---

1 Otreschkoff, De l'Or et de l'Argent, &c., i. 179. The author is a councillor of state in the service of the Czar. 2 During the year 1857, 5190 tons argentiferous ores were imported, mostly from Chili, which produced 846,569 oz. of silver, worth at 5s. an oz., L311,642. This, however, is to be reckoned in the produce of Chili rather than of England. (Hunt's Mining Records for 1858, p. 30.) And deducting from this sum the total estimated produce of the same countries in 1809, when the American mines had attained the maximum of their productivity previously to the revolutionary disturbances (£12,500,000), there is an increase of £1,550,000.

But though, compared with its former amount, this may appear to be a considerable increase, yet, if we compare it with the vast increase that has taken place since 1809 in the population, commerce, and wealth of Europe and America, it will at once be seen to be quite inconsiderable. We believe, indeed, that no small portion of the extraordinary progress that has taken place of late years has been owing to the impulse given to emigration, and to most sorts of industrial undertakings, by the discovery of the precious metals in California and Australia. But if we suppose that the advances we have witnessed might have been effected without this impulse, it is quite obvious that the increased supply of the precious metals from the old sources would not have sufficed to meet the additional demands for coin and for the bullion which is required in the arts. And though the greater scarcity and value of the precious metals would, under the supposed circumstances, have led to the employment of various substitutes in their stead, their increased price, as compared with the mass of ordinary products, would have been too manifest to escape general notice, and would have had a most injurious influence. But the fortunate discovery of the Californian and Australian gold-fields have prevented these results from being realized; and while there is no longer any fear of injury from a rise in the value of gold and silver, many evil results are anticipated from that fall in their value which is said to be imminent. Probably, however, this apprehension may also turn out to be ill-founded.

In addition to the supplies of the precious metals already specified, further quantities are supplied by China and other parts of Asia, Japan, the Eastern Archipelago, &c., and also by various parts of Africa. There is, however, no authentic information in regard to this produce; and excepting small supplies of gold dust brought from some parts of the African coast, the bullion of the countries referred to has but little influence in the markets of the civilized world. M. Otreschkoff estimates, or rather conjectures, that the produce of gold and silver in Asia (exclusive of Russia), the Eastern Archipelago, Oceanica, &c., amounted, at an average of the four years ending with 1854, to 114,527,820 fr. (£4,581,000) a year, and that of Africa to 13,980,672 fr. (£560,000) a year. (De l'Or et de l'Argent, &c., i. 287, 293.)

Supplies of Gold from California and Australia.—The gold in these regions is found in the debris of the quartz rocks in which it has been imbedded, and in the rocks themselves. In the former case it is found in the hollows to which it has been carried down by rains or streams, at different depths, sometimes in grains or flakes, and sometimes in lumps or nuggets, of varying but occasionally of very considerable magnitude. Gold may be sought or dug for (hence diggings) either by single or associated individuals; but when quartz rock is crushed to obtain gold, expensive machinery is usually employed, and the work is for the most part carried on by companies. The business of the diggings has very much of the character of a lottery, with many blanks and a few large prizes; but in the crushing of quartz the returns are less irregular, and the business partakes more of the character of an ordinary branch of industry.

The Californian deposits were discovered late in May or early in June 1848; and notwithstanding the remoteness of the country, and the fact of its being almost destitute of inhabitants, above 5000 persons were attracted to the spot by the end of the season, who are said to have realized above £1,000,000 sterling. The news of the discovery and of the unexampled richness of the gold-fields having spread on all sides with electrical rapidity, occasioned an extraordinary influx of immigrants from most parts of the world into California. The supplies of gold attained to an unexampled magnitude; cities rose in the wilderness as if by enchantment; the great bay of San Francisco, which had hitherto been entirely deserted, was crowded with ships and steamers from the most distant countries; and California speedily became one of the states of the Union, and has now a large population.

But here, as elsewhere, we have to regret the want of accurate information in regard to the production of gold. It appears, however, from the custom-house returns that during the years 1856 and 1857, gold of the value of £51,142,269 and £49,340,186 dols. was shipped from San Francisco. And, in addition to these quantities, large amounts, of which no account is taken, are conveyed away by parties returning to Mexico, to the Eastern States, Europe, and China. Of these various estimates have been made. But the prevalent opinion in the best-informed quarters seems to be that, when they are included, and allowance is also made for the quantity retained at home, the total yield of gold in California in 1856 and 1857 may be moderately reckoned from £60,000,000 to £65,000,000 dols., or from £13,300,000 to £14,400,000, or nearly £14,000,000 at an average.

But vast as it certainly is, this production has been equalled and sometimes surpassed by that of Australia. The deposits in the latter were not discovered till 1851, and they were so very rich, and the influx of immigrants so extraordinary, that the gold-fields of Victoria only are estimated to have produced in 1852 no fewer than 4,247,152 oz.; which, at the then price of 70s. an oz., gives a gross amount of £14,866,799. This, however, has been the maximum amount of production hitherto attained. In 1857 the same gold-fields furnished only 2,606,040 oz. According to the carefully-compiled and valuable returns of Mr Khull of Melbourne, the yield of gold in Victoria since 1852 has been as follows, viz.:—

| Year | Asserained Ounces | Unrecorded Ounces | Total Ounces | Price per Oz. | Value | |------|-------------------|------------------|-------------|--------------|-------| | 1852 | 3,159,322 | 1,088,325 | 4,247,152 | 70s. | £14,866,799 | | 1853 | 2,974,152 | 816,199 | 3,800,342 | 75 | £11,488,783 | | 1854 | 1,831,434 | 361,964 | 2,193,699 | 80 | £1,770,796 | | 1855 | 2,234,296 | 729,864 | 2,964,073 | 80 | £11,856,292 | | 1856 | 2,530,383 | 1,003,144 | 3,533,527 | 80 | £14,134,108 | | 1857 | 2,341,147 | 264,893 | 2,606,040 | 80 | £10,424,160 |

In addition to the gold obtained from Victoria, a supply which in 1852 amounted to nearly £3,000,000 was obtained from the Sydney or New South Wales district. The produce from this source has, however, rapidly declined, and is now (1858) so inconsiderable as hardly to be worth notice.

It would therefore appear that the entire annual produce of the precious metals in different parts of the civilized world might, in 1857, be estimated as follows, gold and silver in 1857.

| Country | Value | |--------------------------|-------------| | America, excluding Calif. | £9,000,000 | | Asiatic Russia | 3,500,000 | | Europe | 1,550,000 | | California | 14,000,000 | | Australia | 11,000,000 | | **Total** | **£39,050,000** |

The question in regard to the probable continuation, increase, or diminution of this supply is of the greatest in- Supply of terest. Unfortunately, however, nothing but the vaguest conjectures can be offered with respect to it. Those who think that the supplies of the precious metals are likely to increase may allege that, being very widely diffused, fresh deposits will be successively brought to light; that the processes followed in the diggings, in the crushing of quartz rocks, and in the smelting and refining of the metals, will be further improved; and that the increase of population will make a still greater amount of labour be devoted to the search after these metals. But while we admit that there is a good deal of probability in these statements, still we question whether the result which they point at will be realized. Though gold be very generally distributed, it is extremely doubtful whether there be many places in which the deposits are so rich and so extensive as in California and Australia; and even in these the produce, as already seen, is either stationary or has begun to decline. The myriads of adventurers that are attracted to prolific diggings being all animated by the "auri sacrae fames," and putting forth their entire energies, can hardly fail, in no very lengthened period, to rifle the richest beds. And when this is done,—when the excitement inspired by the original discovery is worn off, and the great prizes in the gigantic lottery recur only at distant intervals,—then, unless new and equally promising discoveries should be made, a serious check will be given to the gold-seeking mania. The process of quartz-crushing is believed to produce only moderate profits, and is not of a kind to collect crowds of competitors. The few fortunes that have been realized in California and Australia have not been made by the miners, but by the merchants and others who have supplied their real or imaginary wants, and bought their gold-dust and nuggets on advantageous terms. Of those engaged on their own account in the search for gold, very few have retired from the pursuit with anything like a competence. The great majority have hardly realized the wages current in the districts before the deposits were discovered; and the conviction seems to be everywhere gaining ground that more is to be made by cultivating the surface of the earth than by digging in its bowels or crushing its rocks.

We have already seen that in 1856, when the produce of the gold-fields of Victoria was greater than it has been since 1852, it amounted to L14,134,000. By far the largest portion of this immense sum is to be regarded as wages, or as belonging to the diggers and other adventurers engaged in its production. But a considerable portion must also be considered as the profit upon or return to the capital employed in the diggings, in crushing quartz rocks, in defraying the export duty (L375,426 in 1856), with the expense of conveying the gold to Melbourne, and so on. It is not possible to say what these various items may amount to; but taking them at the low estimate of one million only, we have a sum of L13,134,000 to be divided among those engaged in the gold-fields. Now, it appears from the official return that the population of the latter amounted, on the 26th December 1856, to no fewer than 116,343 men (including 18,104 Chinese), and 65,667 women and children. And dividing the produce (under deduction of profits, &c.), or L13,134,000, among the men employed, it gives a sum of nearly L114 for the average wages of each. And this, considering the hardships and privations to which they are exposed, and the high price of most articles, is in truth but a poor remuneration. Inasmuch, however, as those employed were mostly adventurers, a few of whom made comparatively large sums, it follows that the earnings of the majority must have been proportionally reduced. It is, indeed, well known that a great many made, if anything, only the merest trifle. And nothing but the spirit of gambling, or the hope by which every one is inspired, that eventually he will stumble upon a nugget or a rich deposit, could induce them to continue in so poor a business.

The yield of the gold-fields fell off, as previously seen, from L14,134,000 in 1856 to L10,424,000 in 1857; and deducting from the latter one million for profits and expenses of all sorts, we have L9,424,000 to be divided among the diggers and others employed in its production. And as the population of the gold-fields amounted, on the 28th February 1857, to 175,585, of whom 111,425 were men, and the residue women and children, it follows, supposing it to have continued at about the same level throughout the year, that the average earnings of the men would amount to L84, 10s. each, which is less than the wages of most sorts of skilled labour in this country. The earnings of the Californian gold-seekers have not been greater. These facts have told already, and will tell more, the more they become known, on the European population of the gold-fields. The spirit of adventure and gambling is no doubt very powerful, but the knowledge of the vast preponderance of blanks in the gold-digging lottery cannot fail to reduce the numbers of those who embark in it. Immigration has already sustained a severe check; and it is not improbable that in the end the gold-fields will be principally wrought by Chinese labourers for such capitalists as may carry on the business as an ordinary and not very productive branch of industry. The general poverty of the soil of Victoria, and the injurious regulations which prevent its settlement, will tend to retard this result. But unless some new and more productive deposits, something to whet and excite the spirit of adventure, should be discovered, it is not easy to see how the depopulation of the gold-fields should be prevented.

It may be said perhaps that we have omitted in the previous statements to notice the supplies of gold that may be expected to be derived from the newly-discovered deposits along the Fraser River, in British Columbia, adjoining Vancouver's Island. Hitherto, however, no means have been afforded by which to form any estimate of the productivity of these deposits. And independent of this circumstance, we do not think that we should be warranted in laying much stress on their discovery. To whatever extent they may be wrought, it seems most likely that those of California will be neglected in a corresponding degree. Except from the latter, there has been as yet no considerable influx of immigrants into British Columbia. And unless in the improbable event of the gold-fields in the latter being decidedly more productive than those in the former, there are but slender grounds for thinking that their aggregate produce will be materially increased. On the contrary, the better opinion seems to be, that it will be reduced by the population resorting in preference to agriculture, for which California is extremely well fitted, and the ordinary pursuits of industry.

We are therefore inclined to anticipate a falling-off rather than an increase in the supply of gold. But no great stress can reasonably be laid on any conclusion, whether on one side or another, in regard to matters which are liable to be affected by an infinite variety of circumstances which can neither be foreseen nor appreciated beforehand.

In all speculations in regard to the probable future supply of gold, it should be carefully borne in mind that any considerable fall in its value would certainly check its production, and consequently tend to lessen or prevent its further fall. It is plain, for example, that a decline of 10 per cent. in the value of gold would, ceteris paribus, occasion the abandonment of all those mines, diggings, washings,

---

1 Papers relating to the Discovery of Gold in Australia, printed by order of the House of Commons, 25th August 1857, p. 68. crushings, &c., which yield only a nett profit of that amount.

It is true, indeed, that the production of gold, as at present carried on, having far more of a gambling character than pertains to most branches of industry, the principle now stated would not operate so speedily as might perhaps be anticipated. But of its ultimate operation there can be no question; and it may therefore be laid down, that any reduction in the value of gold, which is not accompanied by a corresponding improvement in the method of its production, inevitably tends to correct itself, or to check or hinder its further reduction.

In the event, however, of an increase being destined to take place in the produce of the precious metals, we are disposed to believe that it will take place in silver rather than in gold. The disturbances that have so long prevailed in Mexico, and the other ex-decent colonies of Spain, cannot be perpetual. And when the reign of good order and security has been once more established in them, whether it be by the efforts of the inhabitants themselves, or, which is most probable, by their absorption into the United States, industry will again revive. And under such circumstances, and considering the extent and riches of the silver mines of these countries, the fair presumption is, that the supplies of silver would be largely increased. We should not, indeed, be at all surprised if, in the course of some twenty years or less, a cry were to be set up in regard to the fall of silver as compared with gold; and that the governments of such countries as may have a silver standard should be called upon to abandon it for one of gold.

But these are events of which it is not possible to cast the horoscope. They will gradually manifest themselves, but not to a priori inquirers.

PART II.—Consumption of the Precious Metals.

In order to form a reasonable conjecture in regard to the probable influence of this vast supply of the precious metals, it is necessary to inquire into their uses and probable consumption. And this inquiry, we regret to say, is still more difficult, and more likely to be infected with errors, than the inquiry in regard to their production.

The precious metals are used as coin or currency to facilitate exchanges; as wealth which may be conveniently kept or hoarded; and they are used in the arts in the shape of plate, and in gilding, and so on.

The quantities employed in these functions are very large indeed. They vary, however, in different countries and periods with the circumstances peculiar to each; such, for example, as the greater or less abundance of paper money, and the degree in which the use of coins is lessened by the various devices resorted to for economizing currency; the fashion as to plate and furniture; the feeling of security at the time; and a number of other circumstances all liable to great and sometimes sudden changes.

The gold and silver employed in this country as currency, and in the customary reserves in the hands of the bankers, is supposed to amount to from L70,000,000 to L75,000,000. In France the precious metals employed in the same way probably amount to nearly double the sum now mentioned, or to L130,000,000 or L140,000,000. And we believe that we may safely estimate the entire sum employed as currency in Europe, America (North and South), Australia, the Cape of Good Hope, and Algeria, at from L490,000,000 to L510,000,000, or L500,000,000 at a medium. Now, supposing this sum to be employed as above stated, as currency, we have first to inquire into its probable wear and tear and loss, and then into the probable rate of its increase. And taking into account the extraordinary extension of navigation and emigration, and the proportional risk of loss from shipwreck and other casualties, we are disposed to think that the annual wear and tear and loss of coin may be estimated at about 1½ per cent. of the entire mass of the currency; which, taking the latter at L500,000,000, would amount to L7,500,000 a year.

It is difficult to form any probable estimate of the rate at which the bullion used as currency may be likely to increase, supposing its value not to fall off. The extremely rapid increase of refinement and population in most parts of the civilized world, and especially in America and Australia, is known to every one. And it seems pretty certain that some important countries which have hitherto made comparatively little progress, are about to enter on a new career of industry and enterprise. In Russia, for example, the measures that are in progress for the construction of railways and the emancipation of the peasantry can hardly fail to awaken the dormant energies of the latter, and give new vigour to their exertions. And the capacities of that country are so very great that it is not easy to imagine, were its resources at all developed, to what an extent its wealth and population might be increased.

At present some of the finest, best situated, most extensive, and of old the most populous and flourishing countries in the world, groan under the deadly influence of the superannuated but destructive despotism of the Turks. It is difficult, however, to suppose, despite the efforts that may be made to bolster it up, that this miserable fabric of superstition and tyranny should hold together much longer. And were it overthrown, and anything like an efficient government established in its stead, a fruitful and all but boundless field would be laid open to industry and enterprise.

But without insisting on such prospective considerations, and looking only to the advances that are now being made, we do not think that we shall exaggerate if we estimate the increase of currency that is now going on at 2 per cent. on its gross amount (L500,000,000), or at L10,000,000 a year.

It is impossible, however, supposing this estimate not to be very wide of the mark at present, to conjecture how long the currency will go on increasing in this ratio. It may, as we have seen, be safely taken for granted that the sphere of civilization and commerce is destined rapidly to extend. But its expansion will no doubt be accompanied with various contrivances for economizing the use of metallic money; so that the quantity of it in circulation may not increase for any very lengthened period at the rate above stated. If it did, it would absorb an immense supply of gold. In barbarous countries, and in those which are entering on the career of civilization, the coins affloat may... increase at the rate of 3 or 5 per cent, or more. But in countries which are more advanced their increase may be nothing, or less perhaps than even 1 per cent.

It is equally difficult to acquire any satisfactory information in regard to the quantity of bullion consumed in the arts. Jacob estimated its amount in Europe and America in 1830 at about L5,900,000 a year. But it has since been repeatedly shown by various intelligent writers that this estimate was in many respects wide of the mark, and that on the whole it was a good deal under-rated. And supposing the consumption of the precious metals in the arts to have amounted to L6,500,000 or L7,000,000 in 1830, it must now be very much greater. Everywhere, indeed, but more especially in England, America, Germany, and Russia, there has been an extraordinary increase of population and wealth during the last eight-and-twenty years. Plate and plated articles for use and ornamental purposes are now in extensive demand among all but the very lowest orders. Vastly more persons are raising themselves from poverty to competence and affluence than at any former period; and these are universally large buyers of plate and other costly articles. Horace, were he now amongst us, would not venture to repeat his boast, that—

"Non ebur, neque aureum Mel residet in domo lacunar." Lib. ii., Od. 18.

A taste for gilded saloons, magnificent glasses, and the gorgeous furniture of the age of Louis XIV., is at present all but universally diffused, and must have added greatly to the consumption of gold, which has been still further augmented by its increased outlay on the gilding of earthenware and china, harness, books, &c. At the first blush of the matter, some of these items may not appear to the careless observer to be of much importance; but those who reflect a little on the subject, and who consider the immense and rapidly-increasing demand for the articles referred to in this country and Europe generally, and in America and Australia, will be satisfied that the total consumption of the precious metals, and especially of gold, in the way now mentioned, must be quite immense.

We incline to think that the value of the precious metals in Great Britain in 1857, in the shape of plate, watches, jewels, and trinkets of all descriptions, may be safely estimated at about L4 to each individual of the entire population, making in the aggregate a sum of about L88,000,000, to which, if we add L12,000,000 for Ireland, the whole will amount to L100,000,000. And vast as this sum may appear, we believe it is inside the mark. Silver spoons and forks, silver tea-services, with trays, &c., are now universally met with throughout the middle as well as the upper classes; while most families, of any antiquity or consideration of any kind, possess large quantities of ornamental as well as useful plate. In the Continent and the United States the bullion invested in the way now stated is very great indeed. In Italy and some other countries the lower classes, especially the women, though not generally so well off as in England, spend more money upon massive rings, chains, brooches, and such like articles, which they regard much as girls in England do their deposits in the savings-bank, as a reserve fund or capital.

We are aware that Jacob says, that "In the present day in this country the quantity of gold and silver in actual existence, including utensils, ornaments, jewelry, trinkets, and watches, is three or four times as great as the value of those metals which exists in the form of money." (Historical Inquiry, i. 210.) And as the value of the precious metals in Great Britain, in the shape of coin, is certainly not less at present (1858) than L70,000,000 or L75,000,000, the value of the bullion in plate, jewellery, &c., ought, on this hypothesis, to amount to at least L210,000,000 or L280,000,000! But there can be no manner of doubt that the lowest of these sums would be far beyond the mark. Tegohorski (Gites Aurifères, &c., p. 66), who is supported by Humboldt (Nouvelle Espagne, iii., p. 465, ed. 1827), estimates the value of the bullion vested in plate, watches, jewellery, &c., at only half the amount vested in coin. But this estimate, though not perhaps very far wrong if applied to the poorer countries of Europe, would undoubtedly, if applied to Great Britain, be as much under as that of Jacob is above the mark.

But, without pretending to an accuracy which, on such subjects, is unattainable, we run little risk in concluding that the expenditure of bullion in the arts—that is, in plate, jewellery, gilding, &c.—in Europe, America, and Australia, cannot at present (1858) be under, if it do not exceed, L15,000,000 or L16,000,000 a year. But of this portion, estimated at about one-fifth, or 20 per cent, is supposed to be obtained from the fusion of old plate, the burning of lace, picture-frames, &c. And hence, if we deduct from the L15,000,000 used in the arts 20 per cent for the old bullion, we have L12,000,000 for the total quantity of the supplies from the mines annually disposed of in this way; a considerable portion of which, including that used in the gilding of rooms, earthenware, books, harness, buttons, &c., cannot be again recovered or applied to any useful purpose.

And however great it may appear to be, this amount will be largely increased with the increase of population and the spread of refinement in the arts, and still more by anything like a considerable fall in the value of bullion.

Hence it would appear, putting these items together, that the annual consumption of bullion or currency, and in the arts, amounts to about L29,500,000, viz.:

| Wear and tear and loss of coin | L7,500,000 | |-------------------------------|------------| | Increase of currency | 10,000,000 | | Used in the arts | 12,000,000 |

Total .................................. L29,500,000

It will be difficult to show that these estimates are beyond the mark; and supposing them to be nearly correct, it follows, deducting the above sum from the previously estimated produce of the mines (L39,050,000 – L29,500,000), that we have a surplus of L9,550,000 to defray the sums required for hoarding, for exportation to the East, &c. And there certainly seems to be little reason for thinking that a supply of this amount will do more than meet the demands upon it.

It may be said, perhaps, that we must have exaggerated the consumption of the precious metals, insomuch as the sum which we suppose is annually consumed considerably exceeds the entire produce of the mines previously to the supplies from California and Australia. But, while we admit the fact to be as stated, we deny the inference which is attempted to be drawn from it. The truth is, that while the discovery of the Californian and Australian deposits has added in so great a degree to the supply of bullion, it has also added very largely to its consumption. It has given an unparalleled stimulus to emigration and commerce. The population of California and Victoria has increased in a ratio hitherto unheard of, or from next to nothing a dozen years ago, the former to 507,000 in 1856 (American Almanac for 1858), and the latter to 463,000 on the 31st December 1857. But despite this increase, wages, owing to the general desire to speculate on one's own account, continue to be extravagantly high. In California in 1856 miners readily obtained from 10s. to 25s. a day, according to their skill and capacity for enduring fatigue; common labours from 8s. to 12s. a day; and house-servants from L5. to L6. a month. For a while most articles were proportionally high, so that these extravagant wages were not so advantageous to the parties receiving them as might have been supposed. But there has latterly been a great fall in the price of manufactured goods and colonial produce; while, owing to the progress of agriculture, provisions have also been greatly reduced. Lodgings are still very dear, but not so exorbitant as formerly. In Australia, the state of things for a while after the discovery of the gold-fields, was not very dissimilar; wages, however, though still very high, are now (1838) a good deal lower there than in California; while in other respects there is but little difference between the two. And if, in addition to these unprecedented circumstances, we take into account the unsettled character of the population, with the absorbing pursuit of wealth on the one hand, and the utter recklessness of expenditure on the other, we must be satisfied that the currency of these countries cannot be otherwise than excessive as compared with their population.

The powerful influence of the late gold discoveries is not, however, confined to California and Australia. The emigration to these countries, and the new and rapidly-increasing markets which they afford, have told effectually here, and indeed in every commercial country. In England the rise of wages cannot be estimated at less than from 10 to 30 per cent., while in Ireland it has been a good deal more. And though the rise of wages in the latter be in part ascribable to the famine of 1846-47, and in a still greater degree to the emigration to the United States, yet, as this emigration has been powerfully promoted by the influx of emigrants from the Atlantic states to California, it is clear that the gold of the latter has been at bottom a prominent cause of the improvement in the condition of the Irish peasantry. The same may be said of the emigration from Germany, which has latterly become of first-rate importance. At an average of the seven years ended with 1852, it amounted to 103,591 individuals a year; the numbers in 1851 and 1852 being respectively 120,708 and 155,730, of which by far the greater portion was destined for the United States. (Report of Emig. Com. for 1853, p. 104.) In 1854 the emigrants to the latter from Germany only, amounted to no fewer than 223,862; and though not so great since, they are still very numerous, having amounted in 1857 to 91,781. (Hunt's Com. Mag., June 1858, p. 768.)

The rise of wages consequent on these extraordinary mutations, and the increased exports of produce which they have occasioned, have exercised a powerful influence in the United States as well as in Europe. And there, consequently, as well as here, a greater supply of bullion is required to serve as currency. And while this influence is operating on the one hand, on the other the swarms of paremias who are every day rising to opulence, contribute to swell the demand for all sorts of things, but especially for plate and plated goods, jewellery, and such like articles. And what is probably of still greater importance, the metallic basis of the currency is everywhere being enlarged; and the conviction is rapidly gaining ground in the United States as well as in Europe, that no paper currency can be safe unless effectual measures be taken to maintain such a supply of the precious metals in the countries in which it circulates as may be necessary to ensure its immediate conversion into coin.

Burying of Gold and Silver.—It is singular that, in estimating the consumption of gold and silver, Jacob did not make any allusion to the practice which has uniformly prevailed in all countries harassed by intestine commotions or exposed to foreign invasions, of burying treasure in the earth. Of the sums so deposited a very considerable proportion has been altogether lost, and this has no doubt been one of the principal means by which the stock of the precious metals has been kept down to its present level. Every one is aware that during the middle ages treasure trove, or money dug from the ground, formed no inconsiderable part of the revenues of this and most other countries. And though the burying of money has long ceased in Great Britain, such has not been the case among our neighbours. Wakefield tells us that down to 1812 the practice was common in Ireland; and though much fallen off in the interval, it continues to this day to be occasionally resorted to in that part of the kingdom. It has always prevailed, sometimes to a less and sometimes to a greater extent, in almost every part of the Continent. The anarchy and brigandage that accompanied the revolution of 1789 made the practice be carried to an extraordinary extent in France; and there, owing to various causes, which are too obvious to require being pointed out, it still maintains a broad and firm footing. So much so is this the case that, to use the words of a distinguished authority, "En France nous enfouissons notre argent dans nos coffres, ou nous le cachons dans les murs de nos maisons et les sillons de nos champs, selon les vieilles coutumes de l'Orient. Il y a peut être un milliard (forty millions sterling) de notre numéraire rendu ainsi stérile." Yet we doubt whether the burying of treasure be at present as prevalent in France as in many parts of Germany, and in Hungary, Russia, Italy, Spain, and European Turkey. The feeling of insecurity that has prevailed in all these countries, especially since 1848, has given a stimulus to this practice which nothing can counteract. Of the many millions that were distributed among the countries round the Black Sea during the recent campaigns in that quarter, the greater portion is believed to be as much withdrawn from circulation as if it had never been dug from the mine.

It is impossible, of course, to form any estimate of the sums that are thus annually placed as it were in mortmain. They vary from year to year, and are always greatest when wars or revolutionary disturbances are in progress, or when their occurrence is anticipated, or but little confidence is placed in the permanence of existing institutions. There can, at all events, be no question that the sums which have been disposed of in the way now stated in the different continental countries of late years have been quite enormous—greater, perhaps, than those absorbed by any of the other channels of expenditure.

Besides the countries already mentioned, there is a vast Exportation of the earth's surface, including Turkey in Asia, Arabia, Persia, India, China, and other eastern territories, precious metals to which bullion has been largely imported from the remotest area. During the intercourse of the Phoenicians, Greeks, and Romans, with the East, gold and silver, obtained from the mines of Spain and other European countries, always formed important articles of export to Arabia and India. The same notions of the mischievous influence of the exportation of these metals that have prevailed in modern times were also prevalent in antiquity; and various efforts were made in consequence to hinder its taking place. That such had been the practice in the earlier periods of Roman history, is evident from the state-

---

1 Blackstone, Com., b. i., cap. 8, § 13. 2 Storch, Économie Politique, i., p. 222, 1823. 3 Dupuyrède, De la Monnaie, Du Credit, &c., i. 182, Paris, 1853; one of the best of the late French publications on the important subject of which it treats. 4 Account of Ireland, i., p. 593. ment of Cicero, and the prohibition was repeatedly renewed, though with very little effect, by the emperors. Tiberius complained to the Senate that the wealth (meaning gold and silver) of the state was irrecoverably consigned to foreign and hostile nations in exchange for luxuries and female ornaments. Pliny computed the annual drain of cash to India only for these objects at fifty million sesterces, or L.400,000; and to India, China, and Arabia, at double that sum, or L.800,000. And the drain thus early commenced, though varying in intensity, has continued, with but little interruption, down to the present times. Since the establishment of the East India Company in 1600, gold and silver have usually been among the best and safest articles of export to the East. And despite the vast quantities of these metals, but more especially of silver, that have thus been poured into India, they appear of late years to be in greater request than ever in that and the adjacent countries. The supplies thrown upon their markets, like the water poured into the sieves of the Danaids, completely disappear, or are so absorbed that the demand for fresh supplies continues without any abatement.

Humboldt estimated that, of the entire produce of the American mines at the commencement of this century, amounting, as already seen, to 43,500,000 dols., no less than 25,500,000 were sent to Asia,—17,500,000 by the Cape of Good Hope, 4,000,000 by the Levant, and 4,000,000 through the Russian frontier. And though it be generally believed by later authorities that this estimate was beyond the mark, still there is no manner of doubt that the drain of bullion to the East was then, and for several years before and after, of the most formidable dimensions. Gradually, however, it began to diminish, partly in consequence of the decrease in the supplies of bullion from America subsequently to 1808, and partly, and we believe principally, from the great and sudden increase in the exports of cottons and other manufactured goods to India which followed the opening of the trade in 1813. Such, indeed, was the influence of these and other concurring causes, that in 1832 and 1833 the export of bullion from England to India had not merely ceased, but the tide had actually begun to set in the opposite direction. This abnormal state of things did not, however, continue for any very lengthened period. For a few years there was no very decided movement of bullion either from Europe to the East, or from the East to Europe. But this approach to an equilibrium has wholly passed away. Within the last dozen years the drain of bullion from Europe to the East has again set in with renewed force, and is become deeper and broader than at any former period. And yet, despite their continued influx, there is no general rise of prices nor anything to show that India is becoming saturated with the precious metals, or even with silver. On the contrary, the supply appears to be as deficient as ever; and it is doubtful whether this apparently bottomless abyss be not of itself sufficient to swallow up the largest portion, if not the whole, of the late extraordinary additions to the supply of bullion. The following returns supply the latest and most authentic information in regard to the exportation of bullion to the East:

I. An Account of the Quantities of Gold and Silver respectively exported to India, China, and Egypt, during each of the Ten Years ending with 1852, distinguishing between British and Foreign Coin, and between Coin and Bullion.

| Countries | Years | British Gold Coin | Foreign Gold Coin | Gold Bullion | Total of Gold | British Silver Coin | Foreign Silver Coin | Silver Bullion | Total of Silver | |-----------|-------|-------------------|------------------|-------------|--------------|-------------------|------------------|---------------|---------------| | | | Ounces | Ounces | Ounces | Ounces | Ounces | Ounces | Ounces | Ounces | | To the British Possessions in India | 1843 | 7,877 | | 18,180 | 122,450 | 333,779 | | | 494,409 | | | 1844 | 5,944 | | 5,944 | | | | | | | | 1845 | 115 | | 115 | | | | | | | | 1846 | 2,318 | | 2,318 | | | | | | | | 1847 | 2,014 | | 2,014 | | | | | | | | 1848 | 1,208 | | 1,208 | | | | | | | | 1849 | 651 | | 651 | | | | | | | | 1850 | 9,628 | | 9,628 | | | | | | | | 1851 | 5,155 | | 5,155 | | | | | | | | 1852 | 16,356 | | 16,356 | | | | | | | | 1843 | | | | | | | | | | | 1844 | | | | | | | | | | | 1845 | | | | | | | | | | | 1846 | | | | | | | | | | | 1847 | | | | | | | | | | | 1848 | | | | | | | | | | | 1849 | | | | | | | | | | | 1850 | | | | | | | | | | | 1851 | | | | | | | | | | | 1852 | | | | | | | | | | | 1843 | | | | | | | | | | | 1844 | | | | | | | | | | | 1845 | | | | | | | | | | | 1846 | | | | | | | | | | | 1847 | | | | | | | | | | | 1848 | | | | | | | | | | | 1849 | | | | | | | | | | | 1850 | | | | | | | | | | | 1851 | | | | | | | | | | | 1852 | | | | | | | | |

---

1 "Exportari aurum non oportere, cum sepe antea Senatus, tum me consule gravissime judicavit." (Oratio pro L. Flacco, cap. 28.) 2 Tacti, Annae, lib. III, cap. 53. 3 "Digna res, nullo anno imperii nostrì minus H. S. quingenties exhaustura India, et merces remittentur." (Hist. Nat., lib. vi., cap. 23.) 4 "Minimae computationes millies millia sestericium India et Seres, peninsulaque illa (Arabia) imperio nostro adimunt. Tandem illis deliciis et formae constant." (Ibid., lib. xii., cap. 18.) 5 "Humboldt, cela n'est plus douteux, estiment trop haut la valeur de l'or et de l'argent, qui s'écoulaient au commencement de ce siècle d'Europe en Asie, et portaient trop bas la dépréciation qu'ils éprouvaient, dans la même temps, par le frottement et leur conversion en objets d'orfèvrerie et de bijouterie." (Dupuyrond, De la Monnaie, &c., t. p. 35.) There is no longer any doubt in regard to the accuracy of the latter part of this statement; and it is pretty generally supposed that the first part is also well founded. ### Precious Metals

#### Total Exports of Bullion from Great Britain to the East for each of the Seven Years ending 1857 (from Tables compiled by James Lowe, Esq., of Austin-Priore).

| Year | Gold | Silver | |---------|--------|--------| | 1851 | 102,280| 1,716,100| | 1852 | 921,739| 2,630,238| | 1853 | 880,202| 4,710,665| | 1854 | 1,174,299| 3,132,003| | 1855 | 948,272| 6,400,889| | 1856 | 404,749| 12,118,985| | 1857 | 269,273| 16,795,232|

Total for seven years: 4,700,816 L 47,613,112 L Annual average: 671,545 L 6,787,587 L

#### Total Exports of Bullion from the Mediterranean Ports to the East, for each of the Five Years ending with 1857.

| Year | Gold | Silver | |---------|--------|--------| | 1853 | 83,528| 81,352| | 1854 | 48,456| 1,451,914| | 1855 | 243,229| 1,224,240| | 1856 | 74,039| 1,988,916| | 1857 | 259,986| 3,350,689|

Total for five years: 719,248 L 9,164,221 L Annual averages: 143,849 L 1,832,844 L Total annual averages: 815,394 L 8,920,431 L Total annual average of gold and silver: L 9,435,825

To which have to be added the exports by the Black Sea, the Russian and Turkish frontiers, &c. But the exports of bullion to the East in the current year (1858) have greatly fallen off; and will not exceed L5,700,000. (See post.)

#### IV. Imports into the whole of India (Bengal, Madras, and Bombay), distinguishing between Gold and Silver, and distinguishing also the Countries and Regions with which the Trade has taken place, from 1850–51 to 1855–56.

| Year | Presidency | United Kingdom | Foreign Europe | America | China | All other places | Total | Net imports of treasure into India, excluding exports | |---------|------------|----------------|---------------|--------|-------|-----------------|-------|--------------------------------------------------| | 1850–51 | Bengal | 14,549 | 366,974 | 16,253 | 3556 | 153,203 | 288,426 | 161,083 | 205,338 | 318,935 | 870,547 | 1,189,482 | | | Madras | 4,626 | 98,952 | 2,124 | | | 28,847 | 125,546 | 33,478 | 226,632 | 290,104 | | | Bombay | 3,685 | 24,734 | | | | 541,847 | 861,507 | 257,070 | 672,778 | 802,902 | 1,559,319 | | | Totals | 22,860 | 480,670 | 18,377 | 3556 | 695,050 | 1,150,233 | 437,900 | 1,003,062 | 1,155,310 | 2,659,498 | 3,811,808 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3,270,519 | | 1851–52 | Bengal | 45,080 | 870,194 | 47,505 | 13,104 | 233,408 | 654,910 | 192,835 | 249,435 | 471,323 | 1,835,147 | 2,906,470 | | | Madras | 26,654 | 70,102 | 11,128 | | | 49,915 | 139,699 | 76,569 | 220,825 | 297,398 | | | Bombay | 28,983 | | | | | 460,318 | 953,155 | 330,568 | 675,163 | 790,886 | 1,657,304 | | | Totals | 71,734 | 959,281 | 58,633 | 13,104 | 693,726 | 1,068,065 | 373,318 | 1,064,197 | 1,338,778 | 3,713,280 | 5,052,058 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4,132,970 | | 1852–53 | Bengal | 117,885 | 1,569,041 | 59,357 | 675 | 1,179 | 235,859 | 954,122 | 308,248 | 148,141 | 790,829 | 2,673,158 | | | Madras | 11,088 | 333,574 | 17,400 | | | 38,413 | 156,461 | 49,421 | 527,435 | 576,856 | | | Bombay | 1,500 | 287,950 | 3,640 | | | 333,300 | 908,027 | 230,114 | 1,095,995 | 564,914 | 2,295,621 | | | Totals | 130,373 | 2210,674 | 59,357 | 21,715 | 1,179 | 568,659 | 1,862,149 | 576,775 | 1,400,597 | 1,333,164 | 5,496,214 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6,831,376 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5,776,149 | | 1853–54 | Bengal | 6,645 | 899,283 | 147,686 | 614 | 91,504 | 57,371 | 387,889 | 503,994 | 486,038 | 1,599,948 | 2,665,986 | | | Madras | 17,488 | 367,834 | 3,621 | | | 69,526 | 119,122 | 87,014 | 490,477 | 577,491 | | | Bombay | 28,385 | 335,001 | 4,411 | | | 166,482 | 336,408 | 333,217 | 1,004,576 | 528,084 | 1,632,658 | | | Totals | 52,518 | 1,593,111 | 155,618 | 614 | 257,986 | 932,779 | 790,632 | 1,627,692 | 1,101,136 | 3,778,281 | 4,871,937 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 3,388,652 | | 1854–55 | Bengal | 1,700 | 9,449 | 975 | 24,279 | 4739 | 150,916 | 40,866 | 160,274 | 252,426 | 318,604 | 326,520 | 645,124 | | | Madras | 7,219 | 68,503 | 1,026 | 4,815 | | 174,253 | 7,094 | 330,541 | 671,183 | 504,794 | 684,118 | 1,188,912 | | | Bombay | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Totals | 8,919 | 78,978 | 975 | 29,094 | 4739 | 325,169 | 47,460 | 543,120 | 889,802 | 882,922 | 1,145,334 | 2,028,256 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 761,224 | | 1855–56 | Bengal | 10,400 | 2,612,814 | 994,112 | 374,140 | 3,395 | 634,221 | 173,227 | 333,930 | 1,185,607 | 1,190,659 | 4,349,188 | 5,479,851 | | | Madras | 59,069 | 654,491 | 100 | 24,233 | 5920 | 70,447 | 38,192 | 135,666 | 716,018 | 852,484 | | | Bombay | 170 | 360,008 | 17,943 | | | 874,320 | 58,578 | 375,070 | 3,282,856 | 1,249,560 | 3,710,380 | 4,968,945 | | | Totals | 69,639 | 3,627,312 | 92,212 | 416,323 | 5050 | 3,295 | 1,508,541 | 231,860 | 833,447 | 4,506,655 | 2,515,789 | 8,785,491 | 11,301,280 | 10,700,107 |

It is of importance to observe that, of the silver exported from Consump-England in 1857, nearly a third part, or L5,451,698 went to China. ### IV. Exports of Treasure from India (Bengal, Madras, and Bombay), distinguishing between Gold and Silver, and distinguishing also the Countries and Regions with which the Trade has taken place, from 1850–51 to 1855–56.

| Year | Presidency | United Kingdom | Foreign Europe | America | China | All Other Places | Total | |--------|------------|----------------|----------------|---------|-------|-----------------|-------| | | | Gold | Silver | Gold | Silver | Gold | Silver | | 1850–51 | Bengal | L | L | L | L | L | L | | | Madras | 160 | L | L | L | L | L | | | Bombay | 4 | 16,000 | | | | | | Totals | | 164 | 10,000 | | | | | | 1851–52 | Bengal | 430 | 6,975 | | | | | | | Madras | | | | | | | | | Bombay | 246 | | | | | | | Totals | | 430 | 6,621 | | | | | | 1852–53 | Bengal | 128,794 | 125 | | | | | | | Madras | 300 | | | | | | | | Bombay | | | | | | | | Totals | | 128,794 | 125 | | | | | | 1853–54 | Bengal | 7,151 | | | | | | | | Madras | | | | | | | | | Bombay | 2,004 | | | | | | | Totals | | 7,151 | 2,004 | | | | | | 1854–55 | Bengal | 10,557 | 28,818 | | | | | | | Madras | 933,531 | | | | | | | | Bombay | 24,700 | | | | | | | Totals | | 128,818 | 36,062 | | | | | | 1855–56 | Bengal | | | | | | | | | Madras | 5 | 37 | | | | | | | Bombay | | | | | | | | Totals | | 5 | 37 | | | | |

* Not stated whether gold or silver.

It is difficult to account for the long-continued and heavy drain of bullion to India. It would seem, however, to be principally owing to the following circumstances, viz.:—1. To the country having no mines of its own; 2. To the great amount of the population, their early civilization and poverty, and their habit of wearing ornaments of silver and gold; and, 3. To that burying and hoarding of the precious metals which is perhaps more prevalent in India than anywhere else.

1. The influence of the first of these causes of the importation of the precious metals into India is too obvious to require any illustration.

2. The influence of the second cause of the importation referred to is of the most powerful kind. From the remotest period the people of India have been in a considerably advanced state of civilization, which, owing to the early institution of castes and other circumstances, has continued in a comparatively stationary state. Owing also to the economical habits of the people, and the facility with which they have obtained subsistence, their wages have always been, and continue to be, extremely low. And from the combination of these and other causes, the businesses carried on in India have, with few exceptions, been generally on a petty scale; and while comparatively few large payments have to be made, the everyday transactions of an immense population, though individually small, amount in the aggregate to a very great sum. And hence the extraordinary demand for silver to serve as coin in retail transactions, and for couriers, inferior in value even to the smallest coins.

And in addition to the very great sums required for currency, another, and also a very large sum, is absorbed in jewellery or trinkets. The habit of wearing rings, bracelets, brooches, hair-pins, and such like personal ornaments of gold and silver, but generally the latter, is universal in India, and cannot fail to occasion a very large expenditure. There are no data on which to build up an approximate estimate of the gross amount of the sums invested in the coin in circulation and in trinkets in India. It has, however, been said that it is quite conceivable it should come up to 400,000,000 sterling; and to those who bear in mind that the population is not less perhaps than from 150,000,000 to 160,000,000, and that metallic ornaments are worn by all but the most degraded persons, this conjectural estimate may not appear to be in any degree extravagant.

But if it be not very far from the mark, the wear and tear or abrasion and loss upon so great a sum, being taken at only 1 per cent., would require an influx of bullion to the extent of L.4,000,000 a year. And as this source of loss may be regarded, so to speak, as a constant quantity, it is plain that if, owing to circumstances affecting the commerce of the Peninsula, or any other cause, this supply

---

1 This statement may not, perhaps, be strictly correct. It is affirmed that gold and silver have been produced in India; but if so, it is admitted on all hands that the production has been so inconsiderable as to be unworthy of notice.

2 Newmarch in Books on Prices, vi., p. 723. 3. We have already noticed the burying or hoarding of treasure in Europe. But the practice has been carried to a still greater extent in India, Persia, Turkey in Asia, and other eastern countries, than anywhere in the western world. Despotism and a want of security have always prevailed in these countries. The inhabitants have in consequence been accustomed to regard the money they have committed to the earth as their only real wealth, and have availed themselves of every opportunity to place portions of their means beyond the grasp of their avaricious and tyrannical masters. And as many of the hoards so deposited will never be brought to light, the practice has undoubtedly been a principal cause of the constant flow of bullion to the East.

Bernier, "that most curious traveller," as he is called by Gibbon, remarks on this subject as follows, viz.:—"Avant de finir, je dirai d'où peut venir que cet empire du Mogol étant ainsi une abyme d'or et d'argent, comme j'ai dit dans le commencement, on ne voit neanmoins pas qu'entre le peuple il y en ait davantage qu'ailleurs, au contraire le peuple y paraît moins pecunieux et l'argent s'y trouvent plus rare qu'en beaucoup d'autres endroits.

"La premiere raison est qu'il s'en consomme beaucoup à fondre et refondre tous ces anneaux de nez et d'oreilles, chaînes, bagues, et bracelets des pieds et des mains que portent les femmes; et principalement dans cette incroyable quantité de manufactures où il en entre tant, que se perd, et qu'on ne sait ce qu'il devient, comme dans toutes ces broderies, alachas ou étoffes de soye rayes, &c., &c."

And then, having adverted to the injustice and exactions to which the mass of the people are exposed, he goes on to state,—“D'où vient qu'en chacun est dans une crainte perpétuelle de ces sortes de gens, et surtout des Gouverneurs, plus qu'une esclave de son maître. Que pour l'ordinaire ils affectent de paraître guéux et sans argent, très-simples dans le vestiment, logement, ameublement, et encore plus dans le boire et le manger. Qu'ils appréhendent même souvent de se mesler trop avant dans le negoci, dans la crainte qu'ils ont qu'on ne les croye riches et qu'on ne leur trame quelque pièce pour les ruiner; si bien qu'enfin ils ne trouvent point de meilleur remede que de cacher et enfourir leur argent bien secrètement et bien profondément en terre, sortant ainsi hors du commerce ordinaire des hommes, et persissant enfin là dedans, sans que le Roy ni l'etat, ni que ce soit en profite. Ce qui arrive non seulement entre les paisans et artisans, mais ce qui est plus considérable entre toutes sortes de marchands, soit Mahometans soit Gentils; mais principalement entre les Gentils qui sont presque seuls les maîtres du negoci et de l'argent, inflaçue qu'ils sont de cette croyance, que l'or et l'argent qu'ils cachent durant leur vie leur servira après la mort; et c'est à mon avis la véritable raison pourquoi il paraît, si peu d'argent en commerce parmi le peuple.” (Bernier, Voyage dans les États du Grand Mogul, i., pp. 306–311, Amst. 1710.)

And at a later date, Mr Luke Scratton has referred to the same practice in still stronger terms:—“In India,” says he, “the Hindoos bury their money underground, often with such secrecy as not to trust their own children with the knowledge of it; and it is amazing what they will suffer rather than betray it. When their tyrants have tried all manner of corporal punishments upon them, they threaten to defile them; but even that fails; for, resentment prevailing over the love of life, they frequently rip up their bowels or poison themselves, and carry the secret to their graves. And the sums lost in this manner in some measure account why the silver of India does not appear to increase, though there are such quantities continually coming into it, and none going out.” (On the Government of Hindostan, p. 16.)

The comparative security that was lately enjoyed by the natives in most parts of India may have done something to lessen this habit. But one so widely diffused and so deeply rooted, could not be easily or speedily modified. And though the illegal exactions of their rulers were curbed and partially put down in the countries directly under the Company's government, there was in Oude and many other parts of India, previously to the late insurrection, a great deal of disorder, oppression, and robbery. And since that unfortunate outbreak insecurity and disorders of all sorts have immeasurably increased, and have proportionally stimulated the practice of hoarding. The rebellion raging in China has had similar effects; and we have been assured by those who, from experience and observation, are well qualified to form an opinion on such a subject, that it may be moderately estimated that in India and China, during the half-dozen years ending with 1857, a sum of not less than L100,000,000 sterling has been consigned to the earth.

But in addition to those now noticed, which, though trade of varying in intensity, may be regarded as being to a considerable extent constant in their operation, the state of Kingdom the trade between Europe and America and the East has with India latterly been such as to lead to an unusual increase in the exports of the precious metals to the latter. This has been occasioned by the value of the imports of the commodities of India and China into this country and the United States very greatly exceeding the value of the manufactured and other produce exported to them, and leaving a large balance which could not be cancelled otherwise than by an equivalent exportation of bullion. This is evident from the following statement, viz.:

| Countries | 1854 | 1855 | 1856 | 1857 | |-----------|------|------|------|------| | Exports from United Kingdom to India, incl. Singapore, into U. Kingdom... | 9,643,683 | 10,222,118 | 11,419,004 | 12,662,996 | | Exports from United Kingdom to China, incl. Hong Kong... | 1,000,716 | 1,277,944 | 2,216,123 | 2,449,982 | | Totals... | 10,644,409 | 11,500,062 | 13,635,127 | 15,112,978 | | Imports from India, incl. Singapore, into United Kingdom... | 11,468,967 | 13,284,470 | 18,069,250 | 19,590,404 | | Imports from China, incl. Hong Kong, into U. Kingdom... | 9,125,040 | 8,746,590 | 9,421,648 | 11,448,639 | | Totals... | 20,593,007 | 22,031,060 | 27,490,998 | 31,039,043 | | Excess of imports over exports... | 9,948,608 | 10,530,998 | 13,855,871 | 16,026,065 |

A portion amounting to about L3,000,000 or L3,500,000 of the excess of imports consists of remittances from India on account of the home expenses of the East India Company. But after this portion is deducted, the excess of imports is still very great, amounting to about L6,500,000 or L7,000,000 a year in 1854 and 1855, and to no less than from L10,000,000 to L13,000,000 a year in 1856 and 1857.

There has been, during the present year (1858), an increase to the extent of about L4,000,000 in the amount of the exports of British produce to India (L3,695,000 in the first ten months). But this increase has been in great measure, if not wholly, owing to the military operations now going on in India, and affords no grounds for estimating what the exports may amount to after tranquillity has been restored.

The same excess of imports over exports which characterizes the trade between Great Britain and India and United States with India and China. China, distinguishes also, though in a less degree, the trade between the United States and these countries. Thus in the year ending 30th June 1857, the value of the exports of all sorts of produce from the United States to India and China amounted to £5,373,067 dols., and that of the imports to £9,123,146 dols.; leaving a balance of no less than £13,750,079 dols., or about £3,300,000 to be provided for by drafts on London and other places indebted to America.

From the period when we have authentic accounts of the trade between India and China, it is found that the exports of cotton and other produce from the former to the latter have usually exceeded the imports; so that China, which has mines of the precious metals, has been one of the principal sources from which India had drawn her supplies of bullion. But down to 1830 the drain from the former to the latter was confined within reasonable limits. Subsequently, however, owing to the growing taste for the opium of India, and its enormously increased consumption in China, the exports of bullion from the latter to India were increased to such an extent as to lay the Chinese under very serious difficulties. It appears, for example, that at an average of the seventeen years ending with 1850-51, the annual value of the merchandise exported from India to China amounted to £4,564,400 a year, and that of the merchandise annually imported, to only £643,210, leaving a balance of no less than £3,921,190 a year to be paid in bullion and in drafts on London and other places indebted to China; and this balance has increased during the intervening period, though, owing to the disturbances that have lately prevailed in India as well as in China, the recent state of the trade between them affords no just example of its state in ordinary years. We may, however, mention that in 1856 the imports of opium into China from India amounted to about 66,500 chests, which, at 420 dols. per chest, gives a gross sum of about £6,200,000 for this item only. Under such circumstances, it might have been supposed that, whether there were or were not a demand for the bullion of the West in China, India at all events would be pretty well supplied with bullion brought from the latter. But, as already seen, this is very far indeed from being the case. Notwithstanding the great increase in the exports of British produce to India, the imports of Indian produce into the United Kingdom are still greater; while the annexation of the Punjab and other provinces, and the peculiar state of India, has greatly increased the internal demand for bullion.

But while China has on the one hand a considerable balance against her on the trade with India, she has, on the other, a still larger balance in her favour on the trade with Europe and America; so that latterly her imports of bullion have greatly exceeded her exports. This has been mainly owing to the trifling amount of the exports of British produce and manufactures to China, which, though much augmented of late years, did not amount to £2,500,000 (£2,449,982) in 1857, being only between one-fourth and one-fifth part of the value of the imports from China in that year. The latter, however, were then unusually large, the imports of silk only having risen from 2,838,047 lb. in 1853, to 6,664,532 lb. in 1857, while the price of the silk rose at the same time about 50 per cent.; and hence it is that of the silver exported from England in 1857, the following amounts went to China, viz:—

| Location | Amount | |-------------------|--------------| | Singapore | £875,583 | | Hong Kong | £2,048,795 | | Canton | £28,592 | | Shanghai | £2,398,728 | | **Total** | **£6,451,698** |

But the importation of Chinese silk having been overdone, consumption has sustained so severe a check that the imports in the present year (1858) will not probably exceed 2,000,000 lbs., obtained at a greatly reduced price. It is therefore all but certain that the late heavy balance against us in the trade with China has already been very materially reduced; and hence the great reduction, already noticed, in the exports of bullion to the East generally in 1858; and more especially in those to China, which will not probably exceed £1,500,000. But despite its fluctuations, the drain of bullion from Europe (or Australia) and America to China must necessarily continue so long as the immense importations of tea, silk, and other Chinese products are not fully balanced by the exports; and there are various circumstances which make it doubtful whether this will speedily be the case. The events now (December 1858) in progress must, however, have a considerable influence, which it is yet too soon to appreciate. But the increased facilities given to trade by the late treaty, and more especially the abolition of the tolls and duties by which foreign products were prevented from penetrating into the interior, can hardly fail, provided they are bona fide carried out, to add considerably to the imports, and will consequently bring them nearer to an equality with the exports.

Down to rather a recent period the importation of opium into China, and its cultivation in the empire, were both forbidden by law. But as everybody knows, and we have seen, the prohibition of importation has long ceased to be of any practical efficiency; and during the last two or three years it has been openly admitted at most ports on moderate payments being made to the authorities. In the arrangements which have recently been made with the Chinese, there is one that legalizes the importation of opium at a duty of 30 taels per picul of 133½ lb.

Whether, however, its free importation will increase the demand for the opium of India is not so very clear. Opium is already cultivated to a great extent in China, and its growth is said to be rapidly increasing. There could not, indeed, be any conceivable motive after its importation had been permitted, for attempting to prohibit its being raised at home. And if, as many anticipate, the native supplies of opium should, notwithstanding their alleged inferiority in point of quality, eventually suffice for the consumption, India will lose her market for opium, and government will be deprived of the revenue of nearly £5,000,000 a year it has latterly yielded, in the most unobjectionable manner, to the East India Company. The existing drain of bullion from China to India would, under such circumstances, either wholly cease, or be greatly reduced.

But it is important to bear in mind that, though changes in the trade between China and India, and between these countries and Europe, may lead to changes in the transmission of bullion from the one to the other, these changes, in as far as Europe and the East generally are concerned, can be temporary only. Owing, as already seen, to the want of mines, and the peculiar and deeply-rooted habits of its vast population, India must always have a very extensive demand for bullion, and to it, consequently, it will be sure to find its way. The supplies sent to it may not be paid for by shipments of its goods direct to Europe; but if not, they will be paid for indirectly by imports from China and other countries having payments to make to India.

Some of the circumstances peculiar to India to which we have previously adverted, are such that by far the larger portion of the currency must necessarily consist of silver in regard to coins; and in 1835 they were made the only legal tender, to the extent of 1,849,918 lbs. in the first ten months, against 5,270,330 lbs. in the same period of last year. Precious Metals.

Consumption of the Precious Metals.

rected them to be received at the public treasuries. Little attention was paid to this measure at the time; but after the discovery of the gold deposits in Australia, it became probable, if gold coins continued to be received by the public departments, that eventually none else would be paid into them, and that silver would cease to be employed except in petty payments. This contingency appears to have alarmed the government; and notice was accordingly given on the 22d December 1852, that from and after the 1st January next (1853) gold coins would not be received on account of taxes or other payments due to the public. Silver has consequently again become in fact as well as in law the sole legal tender of India. A good deal of controversy has taken place in regard to this measure. It is plain that, by continuing to act on the proclamation of 1841, government would have practically set aside the law of 1835, which made silver the only legal tender; and would thus have made itself responsible for the losses that might in consequence have resulted to individuals, and for the risk of having its own revenues reduced by the anticipated fall in the value of gold.

But these appear to be most inadequate grounds for the course that was adopted. There are no sufficient reasons for supposing that any material, or indeed sensible injury, would have resulted either to the government or to individuals from the contingencies referred to; and there are at the same time various circumstances which make it much to be regretted that an attempt should have been made to exclude gold from the currency of India. Silver coins, being the only ones fitted to serve the purposes of the great bulk of the inhabitants, must always be in extensive demand in all parts of the peninsula. But had gold also been allowed to circulate as coin, it is most likely that it would have been extensively employed in making large payments, and it would also have been extensively hoarded. Even as it is, leaf and bar gold have been of late largely imported into India from China, to be used in the arts or buried. In 1855-6, for example, the imports in question amounted to no less than L1,508,541; the fair presumption being, that but for the suppression of gold as currency, they would have been very much greater. And if so, the increased demand for gold would, on the one hand, have in so far counteracted that fall in its value which has been so generally apprehended; while, on the other, it would, by lessening the demand for silver, have checked any tendency it may have had to rise. And for these, and other reasons that will readily suggest themselves to the reader, it would be good policy to re-introduce a gold currency. It is contrary to all principle, and indeed to the plainest dictates of common-sense, to exclude it by forcible means from a field where it would otherwise be largely used, the more especially as by doing this we create an unnatural demand for silver at the very time when it is supposed to be rising in value as compared with gold.

Besides the powerful influence that the reverting to a gold currency would have in opening a new demand for gold, and lessening the existing demand for silver in India, there can be little doubt that gold will become in greater request in the latter. It is believed by many that the late outbreak in India will be the harbinger of a better order of things throughout that wide region; and if such should be the case, and its wealth and civilization be augmented, gold would be more largely used than at present in the arts or in the manufacture of jewellery and ornaments of all kinds, as well as in the effecting of large payments. Hence, on the whole, we are inclined to anticipate that at no distant date the exports of silver to the East will be diminished and those of gold increased. Such a result would be materially hastened by any considerable increase in the value of silver as compared with that of gold. But, independently altogether of a contingency of this sort, which depends on a great variety of circumstances, it seems fair to infer that the restoration of tranquillity in India will be accompanied by a decrease in the imports of silver and an increase in the imports of gold,—a result which would be further and effectively promoted by government again making and receiving payments in gold.

Hitherto, both gold and silver coins have been legal substitutes in the United States, France, and some other countries of gold. Wherever such is the case, the value of the coins for silver in respect of each other has to be fixed by authority; that is, it has to be enacted that debts may be discharged by payments either of gold or silver money, at the rate of so many dollars to the eagle, francs to the Napoleon d'or, shillings to the sovereign, and so on, as laid down in the mint regulations of the different countries. But however correct at the periods when they are made, these valuations speedily become incorrect; and whenever such is the case, it is for everybody's advantage to make all his payments in the metal which happens to be overvalued as compared with the other. And hence the use of gold as money in preference to silver in England, and of silver in preference to gold in France and the United States.

In the improbable event of the mint valuations of gold and silver continuing for any considerable period to be nearly identical with their real values, the former would be sure to be preferred as money to the latter in all but petty transactions. Being much more valuable in proportion to its bulk and weight than silver, gold is more easily concealed and carried about. Where notes circulate of a low value, the advantage now referred to on the side of gold is less obvious. But such low notes are in all respects most objectionable; and where, as in England, there are no notes in circulation for less than L5, and in France for less than 50 francs, the use of gold as money is accompanied with so many advantages that we are disposed to think it would maintain its place even though it were somewhat underrated as compared with silver. Inasmuch, however, as gold has so many natural grounds of preference on its side, the true plan is to make it the only standard, and to use silver merely as a subsidiary currency. This plan has been followed since 1817 in this country with the most complete success; and there is no reason to doubt that it may be elsewhere adopted with equal advantage.

The late extraordinary demand for silver in India has been quite enough to make gold be substituted for it in those countries in which they are equally legal tender. In France, for example, where the metallic currency consisted, down to 1850, almost wholly of silver, it now consists principally of gold. This is evident from the following account of the gold and silver coined in that empire from 1850 down to 1857, both inclusive:

| Years | Gold | Silver | Total | |-------|------|--------|-------| | 1850 | 85,192,390 | 86,458,485 | 171,650,875 | | 1851 | 289,709,570 | 59,327,308 | 339,036,878 | | 1852 | 27,028,270 | 71,918,445 | 98,946,715 | | 1853 | 312,964,020 | 20,009,488 | 333,963,508 | | 1854 | 526,528,200 | 2,123,887 | 528,652,087 | | 1855 | 447,427,820 | 23,560,305 | 470,988,125 | | 1856 | 508,281,994 | 54,422,214 | 562,704,209 | | 1857 | 572,551,225 | 3,890,611 | 576,441,836 |

Total: 2,749,693,449 323,559,745 3,073,253,235

1 Levassur, Question de l'Or, etc., p. 105, Paris, 1853. In the United States the coinage of gold has increased in a somewhat similar ratio, having risen from $9,007,761$ dollars in 1849 to $62,614,492$ dollars in 1851, and $59,343,465$ dollars in 1856. Hence gold coin is now used in these two countries, as it is used in England, in all considerable payments which are not effected by notes or cheques; while large portions of the silver coin that has in consequence been disengaged have found their way to the East.

This substitution of gold for silver, while it materially enlarges the field for the employment of the former, proportionally narrows that for the employment of the latter. And hence a very considerable permanent addition may be made to the comparative supply of gold without its value, measured in silver, being materially affected. In the end, no doubt, the values of both metals will be proportioned, independently of variations of demand, to the respective costs of their production. But before this equalization can take place, they must be distributed among the various countries of the world according to the circumstances peculiar to each, including therein their peculiar aptitudes for different purposes, and the novel conditions of their supply.

In Holland, as well as India, that substitution of gold for silver coin which is taking place in the United States and France has been hindered by the intervention of government, which has declared, in opposition to all sound principle, that silver only shall be legal tender. The value of the gold that has been consequently liberated in Holland has been estimated at about $172,000,000$ florins, most part of which has been absorbed in the new gold currency of France. We may add that the additional quantity of silver required, through the cessation of gold as currency, for the supply of the Dutch mints slightly affected the price of the former, which, however, very soon fell to about its old level.

It would not be safe to lay much stress on any speculations that may be formed in regard to the more extensive employment of gold as money in Austria and Germany. Much depends on the continuance of tranquility. But if it be preserved, and the government of Austria succeed in withdrawing any considerable amount of paper from circulation, gold will, no doubt, be partially substituted in its stead; and it is all but certain, supposing no measures are taken to prevent it, that eventually gold will supersede silver in all but the smallest payments throughout the great majority of the German states.

A further substitution of gold for silver may probably be effected by using gold coins of less value than formerly. In the United Kingdom, for example, gold might be advantageously coined into 5s. pieces. It would be inconvenient, perhaps, to have gold coins worth less than this; but of this value their employment would be beneficial, as well by economizing the use of silver, as by their being more convenient and easily carried about.

Supposing that the substitution of gold for silver now referred to were fully effected, and that the production of gold as compared with silver were to go on as it has done since the discovery of the Californian and Australian gold-fields, the value of silver, measured in gold, could hardly fail to rise. This, however, would in great measure depend on the demand for silver for the East continuing at about its late average amount, or on its not falling off. And there are but slender grounds for thinking that gold and silver will continue for any considerable period to be produced in the same proportions that they have been during the last ten years. As already seen, the presumption appears to be rather in favour of the future increase of silver than of gold.

We may perhaps, before proceeding further, notice in this place the following estimate which the Bank of England laid before the committee of the House of Commons on banks in 1857-58:

**Estimated Increase of the European Stock of Bullion in the Seven Years 1851-1857, both inclusive.**

| Years | Imports from Producing Countries | Exports to the East from Great Britain and the Mediterranean | |-------|---------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------| | | Gold | Silver | Gold | Silver | | 1851 | L.3,654,000 | L.4,676,000 | L.102,000 | L.1,716,000 | | 1852 | 15,193,000 | 4,712,000 | 92,000 | 2,639,000 | | 1853 | 22,435,000 | 4,355,000 | 974,000 | 5,539,000 | | 1854 | 22,077,000 | 4,199,000 | 1,222,000 | 4,533,000 | | 1855 | 19,875,000 | 3,717,000 | 1,192,000 | 7,934,000 | | 1856 | 21,275,000 | 4,761,000 | 479,000 | 14,168,000 | | 1857 | 21,356,000 | 4,059,000 | 523,000 | 20,148,000 | | Total | L.130,875,000 | L.29,870,000 | L.5,420,000 | L.55,676,000 |

**Gold.** The total import of gold in seven years has been, say...L.130,000,000

The exports of gold bullion and British gold coin to India, China, Australia, the Cape, Brazil, the West Indies, United States, &c., may be taken at...L.29,500,000

Which would leave as the increase to the European stock of gold...L.107,500,000

**Silver.** The exports of silver to India and China have been...L.56,676,000

The imports from the producing countries...L.29,870,000

Making the amount of silver abstracted from the European stock...L.26,800,000

And the estimated increase in the European stock of bullion...L.80,700,000

In some respects this estimate might be advantageously modified. But supposing it to be, as it may be presumed it is, nearly accurate, still it is obvious that, to get the total addition made to the stock of European bullion during the seven years ending with 1857, we must add to the addition from importations the bullion produced in Europe during the above period. And the latter being taken at L.1,550,000 a year, makes an aggregate sum of L.10,850,000, which, added to the above balance of L.80,700,000, makes the total increase amount to L.91,550,000.

But, though immense, the demands this fund has had to sustain have been equally immense. We have already seen that the coinage of gold in France during the eight years ending with 1857, amounted to no less than L.109,987,740; and during the seven years ending with 1857, the period referred to in the Bank of England estimate, it amounted to L.87,085,201. A portion of this gigantic sum was derived from Dutch, English, and other European coin imported into France, and very considerable portions have been exported, partly to the Crimea, and thence to the adjacent Asiatic countries, for supplies for the French forces in that quarter, and partly to the East by way of Egypt, Smyrna, &c. Still, however, we feel satisfied that we shall be far within the mark if we assume that France has absorbed L.35,000,000 of new gold, during the period in question, in the shape of coin, which is partly employed as currency, and partly hoarded.1 And if we be nearly right in this assumption, it follows that only L.56,550,000, or L.8,080,000 a year, remains to supply all Europe,—1st,

---

1 See in confirmation of the statement now made, Lavasseur, La Question de l'Or, p. 105. The last item now referred to is of much more importance than is generally supposed. Taking the entire number of emigrants from Europe to the United States, Australia, and all other places at 400,000 a year, it is pretty certain that they do not take with them, at an average, less than from L2 to L3 in coin, besides plate, watches, rings, &c. Some estimates make the exports of bullion by emigrants much greater than this; but even on this very moderate hypothesis it will amount to L1,000,000 a year in coin only.

Hence, as compared with the outgoings, the supply of bullion in Europe during the last seven or eight years, far from being in excess, has been scanty rather than otherwise. And without a diminution of the former, or an increase of the latter, most people amongst us will be but little sensible of the influence of Californian and Australian gold.

The previous statements seem to be sufficient to show that the present supply of the precious metals is not more than adequate to meet the existing demand, and that therefore there is no ground for anticipating a fall in their value unless the supply should be increased or the demand diminished.

It is now ten years since the increased supplies of gold from California, and seven since those from Australia, have been poured into the markets of Europe and America; and yet there has not, during that period, been anything like a general rise of prices. On the contrary, the prices of most articles are as low at this moment (December 1858) as they were at the same time in 1850, while several are a good deal lower. And of the few that have risen in price since the latter epoch, there is not one of which the rise may not be satisfactorily explained by something peculiar to itself, and affecting either its demand or the conditions of its supply, or both. Thus, the rise that has taken place in the rate of wages in Great Britain and in Ireland is wholly ascribable, partly to the greater demand for labour, partly to the extent to which emigration has been carried, and partly to the potato rot and the consequent famine in Ireland. There is, in truth, nothing whatever, in comparing the prices of to-day with those of ten years ago, to entitle any one to affirm that the value of gold and silver has undergone the smallest change in the interval.

It has been attempted to show that gold has fallen in value, by alleging that the value of silver, as compared with it, has increased. But a rise may take place in the comparative value of silver without its being occasioned by a corresponding fall in the value of gold. The value of silver is affected by a variety of circumstances peculiar to itself; and if it have really increased during the last half dozen years, such increase may be satisfactorily accounted for by the extraordinarily increased demand for it in the East. It is, however, very doubtful whether there has been any rise in the value of silver as compared with gold.

We subjoin an account of the price of silver per oz. in London, in the months of March, July, and November annually since 1852, viz.:—

| Year | Price per Ounce | |------|----------------| | 1852 | 60½d. | | 1853 | 61½d. | | 1854 | 61¼d. | | 1855 | 60½d. | | 1856 | 60½d. | | 1857 | 61¼d. | | 1858 | 61¼d. |

It does not appear from this table that the price of silver has risen during these seven years. It appears to have fluctuated much less than might have been anticipated, its extremes being 60 and 62½, making its value, as compared with that of standard gold (at L3, 17s. 6d. an oz.), as 15½ to 1, and 14½ to 1; but at an average of the entire period there has been no sensible variation.

That there is but little probability that prices will be raised by a continuance of the present supplies of gold and silver, may be inferred from what took place after the discovery of America in 1492. It appears from the researches of Adam Smith and other authorities, that the influx of the precious metals had exerted its full effect upon prices previously to or about 1640; and yet this influx was much greater then and subsequently than it had been at any previous period. According to the best information attainable, the average annual importation of the precious metals from America into Europe, from 1492 down to 1810, may be estimated as follows:—

| From 1492 to 1500 | L54,300 a year | |-------------------|---------------| | 1500 | 651,500 | | 1545 | 2,839,200 | | 1600 | 3,475,200 | | 1700 | 4,887,600 | | 1750 | 7,957,150 | | 1803 | 9,016,920 |

Annual average of the entire period (1492-1810), L4,109,191.

In 1640 or 1650, when the bullion of America had produced its full effect on prices in Europe, its annual influx amounted to about L3,000,000. And yet, though its influx was nearly trebled between that epoch and 1803, it is admitted on all hands that, down to the last-mentioned year, there was no general rise of prices. The increased demand of Europe was fully sufficient to take off this great increase of supply without any fall taking place in the value of silver. Indeed, it is contended by some high authorities that, instead of falling, it rose in value during the period referred to.

There can be no manner of doubt, not merely that the quantity of the precious metals employed in Europe and America is incomparably greater now than in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, but that the demand for additional quantities is also incomparably greater. And when it is seen that their value continued stationary from 1650 to 1800, despite the immense additional supplies that were thrown upon the market, there is, it is plain, little ground for wonder that their late increase, great as it has been, has not affected their values, or for anticipating that they will materially decline in the course of the next half-century.

Should it, however, turn out that we are mistaken in these conclusions, and that a considerable fall in the value of the precious metals is about to commence, it is of the greatest satisfaction to know that there are no really tenable reasons why it should. grounds for supposing that such fall will be publicly injurious. It is indeed impossible for any change to take place in the measure of value without its exercising an injurious influence over a greater or less number of individuals. But if the less it may inflict on A., B., and C. be counteracted by the advantages which it confers on X., Y., and Z., its effect in a public point of view, may not be perceptible. It is easy, however, to see that, in the case now under consideration, the inconveniences resulting from a fall in the value of gold and silver would be a good deal more than compensated by the advantages of which it would be productive.

1. In the first place, we may observe that the mischievous influence resulting from a fall in the value of the precious metals depends in great measure on the rapidity with which it is brought about. If it were to take effect suddenly, and without giving any distinct warning of its approach, it would be much more injurious than if it took effect slowly and gradually; for, in the former case, it is difficult to take any measures by which to mitigate or avert the impending evil, whereas, in the latter, abundant opportunities are afforded for that being done; and though these were not availed of, a change that is brought about by a slow and all but insensible progress, is but little felt, at least when compared with one that takes place suddenly or rapidly. Now it is sufficiently certain, supposing the value of the precious metals to be in the end reduced, that that reduction will be a very slow process; and that any one likely to be injuriously affected by its occurrence will have ample time to concert measures to secure himself, in as far as practicable, against its operation. That we are warranted in coming to this conclusion is obvious. When an unprecedented influx of bullion has been going on for ten years without having had any appreciable influence over its value, it would be contradictory to suppose that it is at all likely to be speedily and seriously affected by a continuance of the influx.

2. But supposing that these anticipations should not be realized, and that the supplies of the precious metals should be largely and rapidly increased, and their value reduced, the results are not of a kind that should be deprecated. "In every kingdom," says Hume, "into which money begins to pour in greater abundance than formerly, everything takes a new face: labour and industry gain life, the merchant becomes more enterprising, the manufacturer more diligent and skilful, and even the farmer follows his plough with greater alacrity and attention. But when gold and silver are diminishing, the workman has not the same employment from the manufacturer and merchant, though he pays the same price for everything in the market; the farmer cannot dispose of his corn and cattle, though he must pay the same rent to the landlord; the poverty, beggary, and sloth that must ensue are easily foreseen." (Essay on Money.)

Hume appears to have supposed that the stimulus he has so well described, which is given by an influx of money to industry, is occasioned by the additional money coming first into the hands of capitalists, and enabling them to extend their businesses and employ more work-people. But though this would have some influence, the philosophical historian seems to have overlooked the mode in which an increase in the quantity, and a fall in the value of money, principally contributes to excite industry and enterprise. Such fall proportionally diminishes the many fixed money payments that are borne by the industrious classes. The prices of commodities vary with variations in the value of money; whereas taxes, rents, mortgages, and other pecuniary burdens, continue stationary for longer or shorter periods. The latter are rated or specified in certain amounts of money,—those to whom these are due being obliged to receive them in payment, though the value of money should have fallen 5, 10, or even 50 per cent. since the date of the contract or engagement in which the payments originate; while those by whom they are due are bound to pay them, however much the value of money may have risen. Hence the powerful influence of variations in its value over the different classes of society. When it declines, the debtor portion, or those who have fixed money payments to make, are benefited at the expense of the creditor portion, or those who have such payments to receive; and conversely when it rises. Fundholders, annuitants of all sorts, landholders during the currency of the leases of their estates, mortgagees, the army and navy, &c., suffer according to the diminution in the value of money; for, though their incomes and claims continue nominally the same, their value is really reduced, and they no longer have their former command over necessaries and conveniences. But while the farmer pays the same rent for his farm, and the same taxes to government, he sells his produce for a price increased proportionally to the reduced value of money. And while manufacturers, merchants, and tradesmen pay the same duties on their goods, the same port and market dues, the same tolls, the same rent for shops and warehouses, the same rate of interest for capital borrowed, and so on, they obtain increased prices for whatever they have to sell. In other words, the condition of these classes is improved at the expense of their landlords and creditors, and of annuitants, and other receivers of incomes which are either temporarily or permanently reduced through the fall in the value of money. The greater the fall, the more advantageous for them; and conversely.

Now, as fixed or stationary payments include the interest of the public debt, as well as the many outgoings of government which do not readily accommodate themselves to changes in the value of money, with the rents of farms and houses let on lease, or under equivalent agreements, feudities, the interest of mortgages, and other stationary loans, the payments to private annuitants and clergymen, the fees of lawyers, physicians, &c., it is obvious that, in a country like this, they must amount in the aggregate to a vast sum. No doubt it sometimes, and indeed not unfrequently happens, that individuals belong to both classes, or that they have fixed payments to receive as well as to make, and that therefore neither the gain to the one party, nor the loss to the other, from fluctuations in the value of money, is so great as might be at first supposed. Still, however, there is no room for doubting that the greater proportion by far of fixed payments is made to the classes not engaged in business or in industrial undertakings by those who are; and hence the advantage which any considerable fall in the value of money confers on the latter,—that is, on those whose well-being, and that of the public, are commonly supposed to be identical. Such fall, by lightening the burden of taxation and of all fixed charges, increases universally the productivity of industry and the rate of profit. And it is hardly necessary to add that this increased profit operates as a spur to production, that it quickens all the operations of trade, and occasions an increased demand for labour.

The opposite effects follow when, instead of falling, the currency becomes more valuable. Taxes and fixed charges, being then augmented in an equal degree, the profits of those by whom they are principally borne are proportionally reduced, industry is depressed, and the situation of the productive classes changed for the worse. But though there cannot, as it appears to us, be a doubt that a fall in the value of money, however injurious to large classes, is on the whole advantageous, we hope it will not be thence inferred that we are disposed to approve in any degree of an intentional reduction of its value. Money being the standard or measure of value, to interfere with