Bills of Mortality.

BILLS OF MORTALITY are abstracts from parish registers, showing, as their name imports, the numbers that have died in any parish or place during certain periods of time, as in each week, month, or year; and are, accordingly, denominated weekly, monthly, or yearly bills. They also include the numbers of the baptisms during the same periods, and generally those of the marriages.

What has been advanced on this subject, under the head MORTALITY, BILLS OF, in the Encyclopædia, appears to have been taken from Dr Price's Observations on Reversionary Payments; and is designed principally, to explain the method of constructing Tables of Mortality from such Bills, which shall exhibit the law according to which human life wastes at every age, and shall enable us to determine readily, the probability of its continuance from any one age to any other; a subject which will be treated in this Supplement under the head MORTALITY, LAW OF.

The objects of the present article are these:—First, to give a brief history of the principal things that have been done in this way, which may suffice for such as are not disposed to go further into the subject, and may, at the same time, indicate the best sources of information to those who take more interest in it.

As both mortuary registers and enumerations of the people are much more valuable when combined than when separate, we shall also notice some of the principal enumerations, the results of which have been published. We shall then point out some of the principal defects in most of the published registers and enumerations; and, lastly, shall submit some forms, according to which, if enumerations be made, and registers kept, they will be easily convertible to useful purposes.

The ancients do not appear to have kept any exact mortuary registers, at least no account of any registers of that kind, with the ages of the deceased, have come down to us; and although, in the Roman Census, first established by Servius Tullius, both the ages and sexes of the people were distinguished, we have no exact account of these particulars in any one of their enumerations.

Indeed, the principal object of the census among that warlike people, was the levying of men and money for the purposes of conquest; the duration of human life appears to have occupied very little of their attention, and their proficiency in the science of quantity was not sufficient either to show them what the necessary data were, or to enable them to draw just inferences from them, had they been in their possession.

A good account of what the ancient Romans did in this way, with references to the original authorities, may be found in the Italian translation of M. Demoivre's Treatise of Annuities on Lives, by Gaeta and Fontana, which was published at Milan, in 8vo, in the year 1776. (Discorso Preliminare, Parte 2.)

The keeping of parish registers commenced in England in the year 1538, in consequence of an injunction issued in that year by Thomas Cromwell, who, after the abolition of the Pope's authority in this kingdom, in the reign of Henry VIII., had been appointed the King's vicegerent in ecclesiastical affairs.

Some parish registers in Germany appear to have commenced with the sixteenth century; and in the Göttliche Ordnung of Süssmilch (T. 3. S. 23.), we are informed, that at the time of Lord Cromwell's injunction, they had already old registers of that kind, both at Augsburg and Breslaw. However, the extracts he has given from the Augsburg registers do not go back further than the year 1501, nor those for Breslaw beyond 1555. About the beginning of the seventeenth century, such registers appear to have been established in most parts of Europe; but it was not until the year 1662 that they began to attract public notice, and to be considered as the sources of valuable and interesting information. In that year, John Graunt, a citizen of London (afterwards an officer in the trained bands of the city, and a Fellow of the Royal Society), published his Natural and Political Observations on the Bills of Mortality, principally those for London. The London bills, or accounts of baptisms and burials, appear to have been occasioned by the plague, and to have been begun in the year 1592, a time of great mortality. They were afterwards discontinued, but were resumed in 1603, after the great plague of that year. They have ever since been continued weekly, and an annual bill also has been regularly published. In 1629, the number of deaths by the different diseases and casualties, were first inserted in them, also the distinction of the sexes; and these have been continued ever since. But it is in the totals only of the baptisms and burials that the sexes are distinguished in these bills. They do not show how many of each sex died of each disease, neither have they, since 1728, when the distinction of the ages of the dead was first introduced, shown how many of each sex died in each interval of age, but only the total number of both sexes.

This book of Graunt's, although the first, is also one of the best that have been published on the subject. It contains many judicious observations on the imperfections of the bills, on the proportions of the deaths from different diseases and casualties, and on their increase and decrease, with the probable causes of such fluctuations. He also observed, that "the more sickly the years are, the less fecund or fruitful of children also they be."

Besides the London bills, he gave one for a country parish in Hampshire, in the first edition of his book; and, in an appendix to the later editions, two others, one for Tiverton, the other for Cranbrook in Kent, with a few observations on foreign bills. He almost always reasons justly from his data; but, as these were very imperfect, in his endeavours to draw more information from them than they could supply, he has sometimes fallen into error.

Even in this enlightened age, when a much greater proportion of the people devote a portion of their leisure to the acquisition of knowledge than in Graunt's time, subjects of this kind have but few attractions for the generality even of reading men, who cannot endure the fatigue of thinking closely for any length of time. The author, accordingly, expected his readers to be rather select than numerous, and was ambitious of that distinction, as appears by the motto he prefixed to his work,

———Non, me ut miretur Turba, labore, Contentus paucis Lectoribus,———

The book was, however, favourably received by the public, and went through five editions in fifteen years, the two first in 4to, the three others in 8vo; the last of them, published in 1676, two years after the author's death, was edited by his friend, Sir William Petty, who, in consequence of having sometimes spoken of this edition as his own, has by some writers been erroneously considered as the author.

Graunt's observations, like all others of a similar kind, by showing the usefulness of parish registers and bills of mortality, contributed to form a taste for these inquiries among thinking men; and, consequently, to improve both the registers and the bills derived from them; so that, from his time, the subject has been continually cultivated more and more. Parish registers, in most parts of Europe, have been kept with more care; and a succession of works of considerable merit have been published on the subject, containing an important part of the natural and political history of our species, and affording valuable materials for the science of political economy.

The principal of these works we proceed to give a short account of, in the order of their publication.

As the ages at which the deaths took place were not inserted in the London bills till 1728, Captain Graunt could not avail himself of that important information, but made a fruitless attempt to determine the law of mortality without it.

The Breslaw bills appear to have been the first wherein the ages at which the deaths took place were inserted, and the most important information which Bills of Mortality can afford, was first drawn from them by Dr Halley; who, in 1692, constructed a table of mortality for Breslaw from these bills for the five preceding years, and inserted a paper on the subject in the Philosophical Transactions, No. 196.

In 1699, Dr Davenant, in An Essay upon the probable Methods of making a People Gainers in the Ballance of Trade, published some extracts from Natural and Political Observations and Conclusions upon the State and Condition of England, by permission of their author, Gregory King, Esq. Lancaster herald, who had completed them in 1696, though they still remained in manuscript; and the whole of this very curious production was published by Mr Chambers at the end of his Estimate in 1802. Mr King derived his information from the poll-books; from actual observations in particular places; from the assessments on marriages, births, and burials; and from the parish registers. Many of his conclusions agree surprisingly well, considering the time he wrote, with those which are the results of a hundred years of further observations and inquiries. He had access to much better data than Graunt, and his conclusions are more accurate; but he does not explain so fully how he arrived at them.

From the publication of Davenant's essay, above M. Kersseboom mentioned, nearly forty years had elapsed without anything further being done in this way, when M. Kersseboom published an essay, in the Dutch language, on the probable number of people in Holland and West Friesland, which he deduced from the Bills of Mortality (Hague, 1738, 4to); and two others in 1740 and 1742: an account of the first of these three essays may be seen in the Philosophical Transactions, No. 450, and of the two others in No. 468.

In 1742 was published the first edition of the celebrated work, entitled Die Göttliche Ordnung in den milch. Veränderungen des menschlichen Geschlechts aus der Geburt, dem Tode und der Fortpflanzung desselben erwiesen von Johann Peter Süssmilch. The second edition appeared in 1761, enriched with the materials which had been laid before the public through various channels in the interim; the third in 1765, and in 1775 a fourth edition of the two volumes of Süssmilch was published by Christian Jacob Bau-J Baumann, to which this editor himself added, in 1776, a third volume, consisting of additions to the other two, and remarks upon them, with many new tables, and a copious index. The last edition of this work was published in 1798, but it does not appear to have been augmented or improved since 1776. It contains long dissertations on every thing not mathematical connected with the subject, and, besides original information, includes the substance of all the other publications on it previous to 1776; with an immense collection of materials, which, when borrowed, are often better arranged and rendered more convenient for reference, than they will be found to be in the works they were extracted from; besides, the original sources of information are always referred to, and these advantages, with that of a full index, render it a valuable work for occasional reference. The three thick 8vo volumes contain upwards of 2300 pages, closely printed with a small type, and the tables alone occupy 330 pages.

In 1746 was published the Essai of M. Depar-M. Deparieux, which has been already mentioned in the historical introduction to the article ANNUITIES in this Supplement: information much wanted on this subject, was there given in a very clear and popular manner, and the work no doubt contributed greatly to the advancement of the science. It probably had some influence in promoting the establishment of what is called the Tabellväret in Sweden, which took place in 1749, and of which we shall have occasion to take further notice presently.

In 1750 appeared, in 8vo, New Observations natural, moral, civil, political, and medical, on City, Town, and Country Bills of Mortality; to which are added, large and clear Abstracts of the best Authors who have written on that subject; with an Appendix of the Weather and Meteors, by Thomas Short, M.D. which he had "had on the anvil" for eighteen years, as he informs us in the Preface to his History of Air, Weather, &c. This author, with incredible labour, collected extracts from the mortuary and baptismal registers in a great many market-towns and country parishes in England, chiefly in the northern counties, in almost every variety of soil and situation, and reduced them into tables in various ways, so as to enable him to draw useful inferences from them.

He informs us that Lord Cromwell's injunction in 1538 was but little regarded in many places till the year 1559, when another was issued for the same purpose by Queen Elizabeth; nevertheless, he had procured several exact country registers, commencing with 1538, and continued, without one chasm, for more than two hundred years; and the registers before 1644, he considered to be much more valuable than afterwards, on account of the increase of dissenters from that time. He likewise procured both the numbers of families and of souls in seven of the market-towns, and fifty-four of the country parishes, for which he had registers; and thus arrived at satisfactory information on several points, which, till then, had been very imperfectly understood. But the sexes were not distinguished in his enumerations; neither were the ages, in any of the enumerations or registers he has given accounts of, except in the London Bills of Mortality, and what he has taken from Dr Halley, respecting those for Breslaw.

Although Dr Short took so much trouble in collecting materials, and has generally reasoned well upon them, he has shown but little skill, and does not appear to have taken much pains in communicating his information to his readers; so that it costs them considerable labour to find what they want, especially in his tables; and when found, to understand it.

Mr Morris. In 1751 was first printed a tract by Corbyn Morris, entitled, Observations on the past growth and present state of the City of London, with the most convenient and instructive tables of the London bills that have been printed: they contained the annual baptisms and burials from the year 1603, the number of annual deaths by each disease from 1675, and of each age from 1728; all brought down to the year 1750. This tract was reprinted in 1758, with a continuation of the tables to the end of 1757; these also contain useful annual averages and proportions. Mr Morris's observations are generally very judicious, but he was one of those authors who appear to have laboured under much misconception with regard to the evils to be apprehended from the mortality of London, and what they considered to be its baneful effects in drawing recruits from the country. These writers did not perceive, or did not sufficiently consider, that the natural procreative power is much more than adequate to supply any waste of that kind, and that the real obstacle to the increase of the people, is the limited means of subsistence. This had been observed by Dr Halley in his Further Considerations on the Breslaw Bills of Mortality (Phil. Trans. 1693), though it there also appears, that he had not sufficiently considered the mode of its operation: this was first fully illustrated by Dr Franklin in his excellent Observations on the Increase of Mankind, Peopling of Countries, &c. written in Philadelphia in 1751, the same year in which Mr Morris's pamphlet was first published. The author also pointed out in that pamphlet, material defects in the Bills of Mortality, and proposed a better method of keeping them, not only in London, but throughout the kingdom. This gave occasion to a paper by Mr James Dodson, which was inserted in the Philosophical Transactions for that year (1751), wherein he showed the importance of their being so kept as to afford the means of valuing annuities on lives, and proposed other alterations which appeared to him calculated to fit them for the purpose.

Nicolaas Struyck of Amsterdam, who, in his Introduction to General Geography, published there in 1740, had inserted (Gissingen over den staat van 't Menschelyk Gestagt) Conjectures on the State of the Human Species; published at the same place in 1753, a quarto volume, the first half of which is astronomical, the other (216 pages) is entitled (Nader Ontdekkingen noopens den staat van het Menschelyk Gestagt), Further Discoveries concerning the State of the Human Species. It contains statements of actual enumerations of the people in many Dutch villages, principally in North Holland, wherein the sexes are distinguished, and the numbers in childhood, celibacy, marriage, and widowhood; but with respect to their ages, it is only stated for each sex, how many were under ten years, and how many of the unmarried were above that age; except in two instances, wherein the number of each sex is given in each interval of five years of age, from birth to the extremity of life: they amount altogether to 2728, of whom not one was above the age of 85, and only four above 80.

He generally gives, for each place, the names and professions or occupations of the persons who made the enumeration, and the precise day on which it was made; or if it occupied the parties more days than one, those on which it was commenced and completed are given; a practice which shows a laudable solicitude about particulars, and a title to our confidence, the want of which we have great cause to lament in too many other writers.

Extracts from many parish registers are also given; in these, too, the ages are seldom noticed; but in a few cases they are given very minutely, especially in that of Westzaandam, for which, the numbers who died in each interval of five years of age, from birth to the extremity of life, are given; also the number in each year of age under fifteen, the number in each month of the first year of age, even the number that died in the first hour from birth, in the first twenty-four hours, and in each day of the first week of their age. During a term of nineteen years, the whole number of deaths thus registered was 3328; but the sexes were not distinguished under fifteen years of age, which Struyck himself lamented. The work also contains much information respecting the population and parish registers of Amsterdam, Haarlem, &c. with some accounts of other countries, and of other works on the subject.

In 1759 was published, at London, in 4to, A Collection of the Yearly Bills of Mortality, from 1657 to 1758 inclusive, together with several other Bills of an earlier date; to which were subjoined Captain Graunt's Observations; Another Essay in Political Arithmetic, by Sir William Petty; the Observations of Corbyn Morris, Esq.; and A Comparative View of the Diseases and Ages, with a Table of the Probabilities of Life, for the last thirty years, by J. P. Esq. F. R. S. This is a valuable compilation, and has been generally attributed to Dr Birch, the Secretary and Historian of the Royal Society; the preface is very judicious, and contains a good deal of information. For the following history of this publication, the author of the present article is indebted to the kindness of Dr Heberden:—

"The bills were collected into a volume by his father, the late Dr Heberden. He procured likewise, observations from several of his friends, rectors of some large parishes, or others likely to give him information; particularly from Bishop Moss, Bishop Green, Bishop Squire, and Dr Birch. These, together with some of his own remarks, were thrown into the form of a preface; and the whole was committed to the care of Dr Birch. To make the calculations which appear at the end of the book, Dr Heberden employed James Postlethwayt, Esq. a very distinguished arithmetician."

In the year 1766, this branch of knowledge was enriched with new materials, of more value than all that had previously been laid before the public. These were contained in three publications, of which we shall first notice the Recherches sur la Population des généralités d'Auvergne, de Lyon, de Rouen, et de quelques Provinces et Villes du Royaume. Par M. Messance, Receveur des Tailles de l'Élection de Saint Etienne.

Most of the political writers in France, for some years previous to the date of this publication, had asserted confidently that the kingdom was depopulated, but without producing any proofs. The object of M. Messance was, to enable his readers to judge of the merit of such assertions, and to pronounce less vaguely on a subject in itself so interesting, the knowledge of which can only be obtained by a great number of facts and actual observations. The work, accordingly, is filled with tables, exhibiting the results of actual enumerations of the people, and of extracts from the parish registers. They show, for each sex, how many were under 14, or in celibacy above that age; those in the states of marriage and of widowhood; and the number of domestic servants. The numbers of families are also stated; and the enumerations of the ecclesiastics, properly classed, are given separately; but no other information respecting the ages of the living is given than that mentioned above. A great many statements are also inserted of the numbers that died in different parishes, and more extensive districts, under 5 years of age, between 5 and 10, and in each interval of 10 years, from thence to the age of 100; during different periods of from 10 to 40 years, or more, generally ending about the year 1760; but in these the sexes are not distinguished.

In all cases, he has given the general results of his tables, and the proportions they afford, very distinctly stated; and among these results, the increase of the population during the preceding 60 years, to which his researches were generally limited, is clearly ascertained.

The work also contains many interesting tables, in which the rate of mortality, and the produce of manufacturing labour, are compared with the contemporaneous prices of grain, in various places, generally for periods of 20 years each.

In the same year was published, at Yverdon, in M. Muret, 8vo, the work entitled Mémoire sur l'état de la Population, dans le Pays de Vaud, qui a obtenu le prix proposé par la Société économique de Berne. Par M. Muret, premier Pasteur à Vevey, et Secrétaire de la Société Économique de Vevey.

The Pays de Vaud contains 112 parishes, and the population at that time was about 113,000 souls. M. Muret wrote for information to all the clergymen in the country, who made him returns of the numbers of baptisms and burials in their respective parishes, for different periods, from 10 to 40 years, in many of which both the ages and sexes were distinguished; and from about two-thirds of them he obtained also the numbers of marriages and families actually subsisting; also the number of souls, "or at least of communicants," in their parishes: but neither the ages nor sexes were distinguished in any of the enumerations of the living.

This performance does much credit both to the author's industry and judgment, but it has also material defects. He gave upwards of 50 tables, by which he intended to show the probabilities and expectations of life till five years of age, and at every fifth year after that, in different parishes and places, under various circumstances of soil and situation, and for people of different habits and occupations; also for the two sexes separately. These must have cost him a good deal of labour, and would have been extremely valuable had they been correct; but, unfortunately, he did not understand the construction of such tables, and they are not to be depended upon. He also took considerable pains to determine the rates of mortality among married and single women, considered separately, and thought he had proved that it was less among the married; but the proofs he adduced were not conclusive. Some of his observations on the state of the population, and the plans he recommended for increasing it, also show, that he did not understand the principle on which its progress depends.

It is with much reluctance that we make, on so respectable an author, remarks which apply equally to almost all his predecessors in these inquiries; but this we consider to be rendered necessary, by the Memoir generally, and the Tables in particular, having been praised for their extreme accuracy, in a very good abridgment of them, inserted in the second volume of a book, entitled De Re Rustica, or the Repository, 8vo, London, 1770.

The disadvantages of her soil and climate necessarily keep Sweden thinly peopled in comparison with the countries which, in these respects, are more happily circumstanced; and since the year 1748, the state of the population has been an object of anxious solicitude with the government; which, in 1749, established what, in this country, would probably be called a Board of Population (but is there denominated Tabellvärket), for reducing into convenient forms the extracts from the parish registers, and the returns from the magistrates of the numbers of the people, which the governors of the different provinces are required to state to the commissioners appointed for these purposes. The extracts from the registers are made and transmitted annually, but the enumerations only once in three years.

Printed forms, with proper blanks, distinguishing the ages and sexes, both of the living and the dead, with the diseases the deaths were occasioned by, are distributed throughout the country, to enable the people to make these returns correctly and uniformly; and the information thus acquired, respecting the state of population and mortality, is much more correct and satisfactory than what has been obtained in any other place of considerable extent; but from causes which we have not room to explain here, the results were not laid before the public until some years after the returns were made.

M. Wargentin, who was one of the Commissioners of the Tabellvärket, inserted in the Transactions of the Royal Academy of Sciences at Stockholm, for the years 1754 and 1755, papers on the usefulness of annual registers of births and deaths in a country; which, like all his other productions, were written with much judgment and modesty; but, to illustrate the subject, he was generally under the necessity of borrowing materials from the writings of others; as, at that time, he was only in possession of the results of the Swedish returns for the single year 1749. In the same Transactions, for the year 1766, he inserted a paper on the mortality in Sweden, wherein he gave tables exhibiting the number of the living of each sex in each interval of age, in the years 1757, 1760, and 1763; also the number of annual deaths of each age and sex during a period of nine years, commencing with 1755, both for all Sweden and Finland, and for Stockholm separately; with other interesting results of the registers and enumerations, and many judicious observations upon them.

This paper of M. Wargentin's is more valuable than all that had previously been published on the subject; it is also to be found in the French abridgment of the Stockholm Transactions, in the eleventh volume of the Collection Académique (partie étrangère), which abridgment was also published separately, at Paris, in 1772.

In 1767, Dr Short published, in 4to, A Comparative History of the Increase and Decrease of Mankind, in which the tables are printed more intelligibly, and there is more information respecting foreign Bills of Mortality, than in his New Observations.

The first edition of Dr Price's Observations on Reversionary Payments appeared in 1771, and Bills of Mortality contained "observations on the expectations of lives, the increase of mankind, the number of inhabitants in London, and the influence of great towns on health and population," which had been published in the Philosophical Transactions for 1769, and added considerably to the information on those subjects which had been previously before the public; also observations on the proper methods of constructing tables of mortality, mentioned at the commencement of this article, and which we shall have occasion to notice again.

In the Philosophical Transactions for the years 1774 and 1775, were inserted two excellent papers by Dr Haygarth of Chester, wherein he gave the Bills of Mortality for that city, for the years 1772 and 1773 respectively, in a form calculated to exhibit, at one view, the most useful and interesting information such bills can afford without calculation, and presenting to the calculator data that are essential to the solution of the most important questions respecting the state of the population. Three papers by Dr Percival (also of considerable merit) appeared in the same Transactions about this time, relating principally to the population of Manchester and its neighbourhood.

In 1778 was published, at Paris, in 8vo, the work M. Moheau, entitled Recherches et Considerations sur la Population de la France, par M. Moheau. This book is agreeably written, in a way entirely popular, and will probably be perused with more pleasure, therefore, also with more profit, by the generality of readers, than any other on the subject of population. It contains a great number of tables, for many of which he was indebted, to other writers, especially to M. Messance; but he has also given many that are original, derived from the Bills of Mortality and actual enumerations of the people, though, without explaining in a satisfactory manner how he obtained his information, which, if it be correct, must have cost great labour. In his preface he says, "il est tel page de ce livre qui a coûté nécessairement deux mois de travail, et un volume de chiffres."

The fourth edition of Dr Price's Observations on Reversionary Payments appeared in 1783, and contained much new and valuable information on these subjects, as has already been observed in the historical introduction to the article ANNUITIES in this Supplement.

In 1786 was published, at Petersburgh, in the Acts of the Academy of Sciences there, for the year 1782, an essay by M. Kraft, on the marriages, births, and burials, at St Petersburgh, during a period of 17 years, from 1764 to 1780, preceded by a general exposition of the uses such tables might be applied to, if the observations they record were extended over entire governments in Russia. This paper contains seventeen tables, which show the number of deaths at each age, and by each of the principal diseases, together with the numbers of marriages and baptisms; the numbers in each case, being given for each of the 17 years separately, as well as for the whole term; and the sexes are always distinguished; as are likewise foreigners from the native Russians. These tables would have been rendered very valuable, had they been accompanied by statements of the numbers of the living of each sex in the different intervals of age; but for want of this information, it is difficult to apply them to any useful purpose, and many of the inferences M. Kraft has drawn from them are very uncertain.

During a period of nine years, commencing with 1779, and ending with 1787, Dr Heysham of Carlisle kept accurate registers of the births, and of the deaths at all ages, in the two parishes which comprehend that city and its environs; also the diseases or casualties which the deaths at each age were occasioned by; and the sexes were in all cases distinguished. These excellent registers were kept with great care and skill on the plan of Dr Haygarth above-mentioned, and included all disseuters within the two parishes. Dr Heysham published them from year to year as they were made, and accompanied them with valuable observations on the state of the weather and diseases in each year. Their value was greatly enhanced by two enumerations of the people within the two parishes, the one made in January 1780, the other in December 1787, in both of which the ages were distinguished, but not the sexes of each age, though the totals of each sex were. These documents, printed in convenient forms, with further information respecting them, and many useful tables deduced from them, may be found in Mr Milne's Treatise on Annuities.

In the third volume of the Transactions of the American Philosophical Society, published in 1798, were inserted Observations on the probabilities of the duration of human life, and on the progress of population in the United States of America, contained in a letter from Mr Barton, which had been read to the Society in March 1791; also a postscript to that letter, read in December following; the return of an actual enumeration of the people in the United States having been made in the mean time. The information there given from the parish registers is of little value. In the enumerations, the sexes were distinguished, but not the ages, except the numbers of free white males under and above sixteen; but even that information with regard to the population of America is very interesting, whether we contrast the early with the more recently settled counties, or the whole of the United States with the population of Europe.

In the years 1799, 1800, and 1801, M. Nicander inserted eight different memoirs among those of the Royal Academy of Sciences at Stockholm, exhibiting the state of population and mortality in all Sweden and Finland, from the year 1772 to 1795 inclusive. These contain a great number of tables, which present the most interesting results of the Tabellvärket during that period; the ages and sexes, both of the living and the dead, are distinguished with sufficient minuteness, and the number of deaths of each sex by every disease is given. The information in these papers is much more complete and satisfactory than any other yet collected respecting the state of the population of a whole kingdom, or even of any particular part of it, if we except the observations of Dr Heysham, which were confined to Carlisle and its neighbourhood. M. Nicander was a Member of the Royal Academy of Sciences at Stockholm, also one of the Commissioners of the Tabellvärket, and their secretary. We are sorry to announce his death, which took place in the summer of 1813.

In the year 1800 was published, at Paris, in M Mourgue 8vo, under the title of Essai de Statistique, a memoir by J. A. Mourgue, on the births, marriages, and deaths, that took place in Montpellier during a period of 21 years, ending with 1792, with the ages at which the deaths happened, the sexes are also distinguished, and the population of the place appears to have been nearly stationary. The tables and observations of M. Mourgue appear to be more valuable than any others relative to the population of France, that have yet been published, except those of M. Deparecieux, which related only to select orders of the people. This memoir was read at a meeting of the French National Institute in 1795, and printed in the Mém. des Sav. Etr. an. 14.

An enumeration of the people in Spain was made Spanish Re by royal authority in the years 1768 and 1769, and again in 1787; a minute account of this last was printed at Madrid, showing for each province separately, the numbers of parishes, cities, towns, villages, &c. &c. with the number of people in each class according to their ranks, professions, occupations, &c. and the monastic orders of both sexes were particularly distinguished: to these was prefixed a summary of the census of 1768 and 1769. In these two enumerations, the ages of the people were not distinguished with sufficient minuteness; they only showed how many were under 7, between 7 and 16, 16 and 25, 25 and 40, 40 and 50, and above 50. In both enumerations, together with the ages, the distinction of the sexes was given; in the first, the married were only distinguished from the single; but that of 1787 showed how many of each sex, and in each interval of age, were in the states of celibacy, marriage, and widowhood.

A third enumeration of the people in Spain and the Spanish possessions in Europe and Africa, including the Canary Islands, was made in 1797; and a full account of it, occupying nearly 50 large tables, was printed at Madrid in 1801. The distinction of the ages in this enumeration was still not sufficiently minute; under 40 it was the same as in the two preceding, but after that age, the number of the living in each interval of 10 years to 100 was given, and the number above 100.

No information from the parish registers in Spain was given in any of these cases; although satisfactory extracts from them all, distinguishing the ages and sexes of the deceased, or even from those only which could be most depended upon, during the ten years that intervened between the two last enumerations, would have rendered the results of these incomparably more valuable, provided that the population of the places for which correct registers were given, could be distinguished from the rest. Those to whom the superintendence of these measures were entrusted in Spain, seem to have been well aware of this, and to have actually entered upon the formation of these necessary supplements to the enumerations, as appears by the following passage extracted from the introduction to the printed statement of the last census:—

"Interin que se forman las tablas necrológicas, las de nacidos y casados, en que entiende el ministerio de Estado, y que son muy útiles para valuar casi geométricamente el total de la población del Reyno, debemos contentarnos con las noticias que nos proporcionen los censos ejecutados por el método que el presente." But the author of this article has not yet succeeded in his endeavours to procure further information as to these tables of births, deaths, and marriages.

In 1801 were published (in 4to), Observations on the Increase and Decrease of different Diseases, and particularly of the Plague, by William Heberden junior, M.D. F.R.S. containing some tables, chiefly deduced from the London bills. In the advertisement prefixed to this valuable tract, we are informed that it had been intended to be subjoined to a new edition of the Bills of Mortality; which edition, however, was not published. We are also indebted to the same ingenious physician for other interesting observations on the mortality in London, inserted in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society (for 1796), and in those of the London College of Physicians, Vol. IV.

In the same year (1801) was published (in 12mo) another valuable work, entitled, Reports on the Diseases in London, particularly during the years 1796, 1797, 1798, 1799, and 1800, by Robert Willan, M.D. F.A.S. part of which had been previously inserted in some periodical publications; the author's observations were made both on the Bills of Mortality, and on the cases that occurred in his own practice.

In reading the writings of the physicians who have treated these subjects, it is impossible not to regret, that they have been so little attended to by the medical profession in general, and that Bills of Mortality have not been more generally kept in such a way, as to throw the lights which they alone can, on the causes of the increase and decrease of different diseases, and of the great differences that are found between the degrees of mortality in different situations, and among different classes of the people. The information of this kind already before the public clearly shows, that the general causes which tend to shorten life do also embitter it; and that where the people are the most happy, useful, and respectable in their several stations, there also, ceteris paribus, they are the longest lived. And these inquiries, we think, are of more importance to governments, and better worth their attention, than statesmen are generally aware of.

In the sixth volume of the American Philosophical Transactions, published in 1809, two tables were given, showing the number that died of each disease in each interval of age, during the years 1807 and 1808 separately, in the city and liberties of Philadelphia, which were communicated by the Board of Health; the numbers both of adults and of children who died in each month of each of these two years, are also given; and it is modestly added, that any suggestions for further improvements will be thankfully received. We therefore beg to suggest, that the distinction of the sexes, which has not been made, would be a material improvement; and it might also be useful to state, what year the Board consider to be the limit between childhood and adulthood. If, in addition to this, the number of the people in each interval of age within the city and liberties, be determined at regular intervals, as every 5th or 10th year, and the registers of deaths, with the diseases and ages, be regularly continued for several such periods, the annual births of each sex being also given, they cannot fail to become very valuable.

In pursuance of an act of Parliament (41st Geo. III. cap. 15.), an enumeration of the people in Great Britain was made in 1801: also returns of the baptisms and burials in England and Wales, during the year 1700, and every tenth year after that till 1780, then for every year to 1800 inclusive, with the number of marriages in each year from the commencement of 1754 to the end of 1800. Large and clear abstracts of the answers and returns to this act were Acts. printed by order of the House of Commons in 1802, and occupy more than 1000 pages folio. In 1811, another act (51st Geo. III. cap. 6.) was passed, "for taking an account of the population of Great Britain, and the increase or diminution thereof;" in consequence of which, returns were that year made to Parliament, of the number of persons in every part of Great Britain; also of the numbers of baptisms, burials, and marriages in England and Wales, during each of the preceding ten years; very satisfactory abstracts of these were also printed by order of Parliament, in 1812, with some preliminary observations, in which corrections of the preceding returns are given.

The sexes were distinguished both in these enumerations and extracts from the registers, but the ages in none of them; and the proportions of males to females among the living are not to be depended upon, a number of males in the army and navy, which it is difficult to estimate, not being natives of Great Britain, nor usually resident there. The returns of baptisms and burials were also defective, but few registers of dissenters having been included in them.

These abstracts are, however, with respect to the objects they extend to, more minute and satisfactory, than any other accounts of the same kind that have been published; and it is very desirable that such returns should continue to be made, and abstracts of them printed at regular intervals; for nothing is so well calculated to show the influence of different causes on the prosperity of a nation, as the comparison of the different states of the population, and the rate of its progress or declension, under different circumstances: besides, the value of the abstracts we already have, will be much enhanced by the publication of others of a similar kind hereafter.

It is much to be regretted, that no information as to the ages of the living, or those at which the deaths took place, was required by either of the acts above referred to; nor any encouragement or facility afforded to those who might be disposed to collect such information; and, consequently, that none was given in the returns.

Without better regulations for the keeping of mortuary registers than those at present in force, with- out such as should extend to dissenters of every denomination, it would probably be better not to require returns of the ages of the deceased from all parts of the kingdom; for defective or inaccurate returns would only mislead, and, not to mention the difficulty and expense of procuring returns of the ages of all the living, they would be comparatively of little use, where those of the dead were wanting.

But if government were to print forms for making returns both of the numbers of the living and of the annual deaths in proper intervals of age, throughout the extent of life; only sending such forms along with those now in use, to such as should apply for them,—then, persons who take an interest in such inquiries, and have the means of making correct returns, might do so with advantage. And a summary of all of that kind made from different parts of the kingdom, would convey much important information. Returns also, from such places only as were similarly circumstanced, might be collected into as many summaries as there were material varieties in the circumstances; and thus would afford the means of determining the different modifications of the law of mortality, which different circumstances produce. If the diseases that occasioned the deaths were also inserted, the greater prevalence of particular diseases in some circumstances than in others, would be apparent, with their effects, and the probable means of preventing them, or lessening their mortality.

But, the population enumerated must always be precisely that which produces the deaths registered; the grand desideratum being, to determine the number of annual deaths at each age, which takes place among a given number of the living at the same age.

Mr Milne's Treatise on Annuities and Assurances was published in 1815, and contains clear abstracts of the most important statements of this kind that have been published since Dr Price's time; these will, we believe, be found to be much more valuable than any thing of the kind that was extant when that ingenious author wrote, whose work has been generally referred to for the best information on such subjects.

Of all the statements derived from bills of mortality and enumerations of the people, which we have mentioned, only those for Sweden and Finland, and Dr Heysham's for Carlisle, have been given in the proper form, and with sufficient correctness to afford the information, which is the most important object of them all,—that which is necessary for determining the law of mortality.

To effect this, it is only necessary to know the mean number of the living and of the annual deaths, in sufficiently small intervals of age, throughout the extent of life, for a period of time sufficient to allow of the accidental fluctuations arising from more or less fruitful years, and other causes, compensating each other: such periods, probably, should not be less than eight or ten years; but the necessary length will depend upon the climate, the number of the people, their general modes of life, and their political circumstances.

These data being obtained, it is not difficult to determine the proportion of the annual deaths to the number of the living in each year of age. Then, assuming any number of births, as 1000 or 10,000, it is easy to show how many would die in each year of their age; and, consequently, how many would survive that year; which numbers of survivors and of annual deaths, when arranged in the order of the ages, constitute the desired table of mortality, by which all the most important questions respecting the duration of human life may be easily resolved.

For want of understanding the principles upon which the proper construction of such tables depends, most of the writers on this subject, many of them men of great merit and industry, have taken much pains to little purpose, and after excessive labour, have arrived at false conclusions. Hardly any of them appear to have been aware of the necessity of obtaining the number of the living, as well as of the annual deaths in each interval of age, or that that would greatly enhance the value of Bills of Mortality, by extending their useful applications.

Dr Price's Essay on the proper Method of constructing Tables of Mortality, already twice mentioned in this article, was intended to show how such tables might be constructed from registers of the deaths only at all ages; but the hypotheses he proceeded upon can hardly obtain in any real case; and even if they did, his method would only determine the number of the living in the place, at every age; therefore, if it could be put in practice (which it never can), it would only supersede the necessity of actual enumerations; and, with the numbers so obtained, we should have to proceed as above.

That Essay of Dr Price was an amplification of what Mr Simpson had previously advanced on the subject, with his accustomed accuracy, and contains many just observations on the defects of the tables of mortality that had previously been published; but so far as it contributed to induce a belief that the determination of the number of the living in every interval of age, by actual enumeration, was not necessary to the construction of accurate tables, it must have done harm.

What is here stated will be found demonstrated in the third chapter of Mr Milne's Treatise on Annuities.

We come now to the

FORMS SUBMITTED

FOR BILLS OF MORTALITY AND FECUNDITY.

It is desirable that a bill should be published for each year separately, to show how the rates, both of mortality and fecundity, vary with the circumstances of the people in different years; and, from these yearly bills, nothing is more easy than to derive others for longer periods.

According to the form A, the births of both sexes in each year will be distinguished, and the born alive from the still-born; the number of marriages will also be given.

In this, and all other cases where those who undertake the formation of such bills are either unable or unwilling to distinguish all the particulars indicated, the reasons for the omissions should be inserted in the spaces set apart for the numbers omitted. But, where the still-born are not distinguished as such, they should be omitted entirely, and the number of births stated should be that of the children born alive.

The numbers of deaths of the two sexes in each interval of age, during any year, may, as they are collected from the registers, be conveniently disposed according to the form B; the intervals between 5 years of age and 100, being each 5 years; and the number dying at each age above 100 should be particularly specified. It would, indeed, be much better to give a separate statement of the number of each sex dying in each year of age above 90; for the whole number is never very great, and any error committed at the greater ages, in constructing a table of mortality, affects all the preceding numbers in the table.

But some persons, who would not take the trouble of forming bills of mortality in which the ages are to be so minutely distinguished, might yet be willing to furnish them with the requisite care, according to the form b, which might still be very useful; and, indeed, from 20 to 60 years of age, intervals of 10 years each might do very well.

The value of Bills of Mortality would be greatly enhanced, by inserting in them the contemporaneous wages of labourers in agriculture, and of the workmen employed in the more common kinds of trade and manufacture carried on among the people they relate to; also the prices of the necessaries of life which persons of these descriptions consume the most of; together with any thing uncommon in the seasons or the crops, and every material change in the circumstances of the people.

ENUMERATIONS.

The number of the people in the several intervals of age, which we have stated above to be of so much importance, may be disposed in tables exactly similar to B or b, recommended for the deaths; but it is not necessary that the duration of life should be divided into the same intervals for the living as the dead. It is always desirable that the intervals should, in both cases, be small; but yet not so small, as, by the increase of labour, to occasion the numbers being determined with less exactness, or to deter many from engaging in the work. Such intervals should not, however, exceed ten years.

When the bills are given for a certain period, if there be but one enumeration of the people, it should be made at the middle of the period; if two, at its extremities; and if more than two, it is desirable that they should be made at equal intervals of time throughout the period.

We give no forms here of Bills of Mortality and Fecundity, designed to distinguish legitimate from illegitimate children, or the mortality or fecundity of each month of the year, nor the number of women delivered annually at the different periods of life, nor the diseases the deaths were occasioned by. Neither are the forms here recommended for enumerations of the people, calculated to distinguish the numbers in the different states of childhood, celibacy, marriage, or widowhood; nor the ranks, or professions, or occupations of the people. All these things are curious, and of some use, although, if we except the diseases which the deaths of each sex at the different ages were occasioned by, they are of little value in comparison with the information the forms here given are calculated to convey. And it is of so much importance that that information should be given correctly, that we would willingly forego these minor objects, to avoid dividing and fatiguing the attention of those who undertake the more important part of the task, which is of itself sufficiently laborious.

And those who may be disposed to keep registers, and form bills and enumerations, on a scale so much extended as to include all these particulars, or most of them, and have also the requisite qualifications, will find no great difficulty in preparing the most convenient forms of tables for the purpose. Several forms of that description, with references to others, will be found in Mr Milne's Treatise on Annuities

<table> <tr> <th colspan="4">A.</th> </tr> <tr> <th>During the year 18</th> <th>Males.</th> <th>Females.</th> <th>Both.</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Born alive,</td> <td>440</td> <td>431</td> <td>880</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Still-born,</td> <td>13</td> <td>9</td> <td>22</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Whole number born,</td> <td>462</td> <td>440</td> <td>902</td> </tr> <tr> <th colspan="4">Number of Marriages, 261.</th> </tr> </table>

<table> <tr> <th rowspan="2">Between the Ages of</th> <th colspan="7">0 1 3 5 10 15 20</th> <th colspan="4">90 95 & above</th> <th colspan="2">Totals.</th> </tr> <tr> <th>0</th> <th>1</th> <th>3</th> <th>5</th> <th>10</th> <th>15</th> <th>20</th> <th>90</th> <th>95</th> <th>100</th> <th>100</th> <th>Totals.</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Males</td> <td>210</td> <td>152</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>7</td> <td>4</td> <td>0</td> <td>881</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Fem.</td> <td>180</td> <td>149</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>18</td> <td>10</td> <td>2</td> <td>959</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Both</td> <td>390</td> <td>301</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>25</td> <td>14</td> <td>2</td> <td>1840</td> </tr> </table>

<table> <tr> <th colspan="11">B.</th> </tr> <tr> <th colspan="11">Between the Ages of</th> </tr> <tr> <th>0</th> <th>5</th> <th>10</th> <th>20</th> <th>30</th> <th>40</th> <th>50</th> <th>60</th> <th>70</th> <th>80</th> <th>90</th> <th>95 & above</th> <th>Totals.</th> </tr> <tr> <td>& & & & & & & & & & & &</td> <td>& & & & & & & & & & & &</td> <td>& & & & & & & & & & & &</td> <td>& & & & & & & & & & & &</td> <td>& & & & & & & & & & & &</td> <td>& & & & & & & & & & & &</td> <td>& & & & & & & & & & & &</td> <td>& & & & & & & & & & & &</td> <td>& & & & & & & & & & & &</td> <td>& & & & & & & & & & & &</td> <td>& & & & & & & & & & & &</td> <td>& & & & & & & & & & & &</td> <td>Totals.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Males</td> <td>417</td> <td>42</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>881</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Fem.</td> <td>395</td> <td>47</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>959</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Both</td> <td>812</td> <td>89</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>1840</td> </tr> </table>

See MORTALITY, LAW OF, in this Supplement. (v.)